Just to follow up here:
I cleaned it up really well and installed the new seal. Rode around for about 5 minutes and it was good. Another 5 minutes and it had popped out again! I can remove the oil dipstick and blow into the vent tube and it passes air, so I know that's not clogged.
Well, after talking with some guys at the shop I removed the seal, cleaned out the orifice really well, lightly smeared some Hondabond onto the seal and pushed it back in. Let it sit to cure and rode it a couple of days later. So far, so good - the seal is staying in place after a good half-hour of riding.