Maybe another clue...?
This morning, while warming up the bike (in the dark, at 6:00 AM, 30 degrees F outside), I noticed the right front signal wasn't on (running light). When I came back a few minutes later, it was. Maybe there's a short here that has to do with my lack of taillight?
A mechanic here in town said, off the top of his head, that it might actully be in the right switch assembly (starter/cut-out).
Any thoughts? I'll still probably change the whole harness when the part gets here...