step one is a compression test. .and check the exhaust valve clearance as pointed out previously. .
guessing isn't going to help at this point.
If the intake was too tight, ie not closing , you would have blowing compression back thru the
carb which you didn't mention. . too tight exhaust would blow into the muffler which you'll
never hear or see. . and prevent suction on the intake side. . .
Head Gasket
ARe you thinking bad cam timing as in just that one cylinder? In today's age of CNC cam grinding
I'd doubt one lobe is off on a new cam. . . You can check cam timing just
like on a car with a dial indicator. .