Your math looks reasonable.
Nice to know worst case. But, be aware it's a chase your tail scenario. The voltage won't stay at 12V. In fact, when the battery is charged, the voltage will certainly be higher. If you idle for some time, the voltage can get lower than 12. So, it is not really a constant for equational calculations matching the real world.
If you plug numbers into ohms law (I=E x R), 8.53 amps @ 12V, means your bikes load resistance is 1.403 Ω. This is likely a constant for worst case load. But, if you plug that resistance number into the equation above, and raise the voltage above 12V, say 14V, your current and wattage consumption will increase.
On the other hand, the voltage regulator will place the alternator field coil in and out of circuit, relative to system voltage level, this effects the load resistance and the current draw outside of consistency parameters.
Your doing the right things in attempting to predict. It's just a moving target to nail precisely. Do set your expectations accordingly.
Cheers,