Topic: Sturges & Covid..check this out..

[carnivorous chicken]

Hi Everyone..

I didn't start this thread to argue who's right or who's wring particularly. Yes cFact tends to be conservative in the articles they print.  But then if I may say so..so are some of the sources that a few others here have used to show "statistics' about 'how bad things are' equally liberal in their biases.

I hope that all of us can rise above the personal biases and whatever emotional 'convictions' we may have developed about the situation with Covid 19 (also called 'confirmation bias')..and simply try to consider the information available to us.

As I think I mentioned before..my background (for over 40 years) is in medicine and the health care field.  So my main interest is to help heal folks..not make them more anxious..or to try to prove a personal point just to look good..I hope for anyway.

Please don't despair any of you. We will all get through this current period with Corona virus (particularly those of you under 60) and hopefully will have learned how to not only deal more effectively with novel viral outbreaks..but recognize better what's really necessary..and what's overreaction.

Best wishes..Al/Ichi

I agree -- I don't think anyone is trying to be a fear monger. Rather, there is some kind of crazy misinformation and false equivalencies being thrown around. Although I appreciate that there can be biases on both the right and left, I'd kindly ask to show how anything here reflects a leftist bias, unless caring about people over profit is an inherently leftist idea. The idea that "both sides do it" or that both sides deserve equal time gives equal weight to a side that denies science, your field of medicine, and common sense, and empowers people who think that a fringe YouTube video or google search makes them experts, instead of listening to actual qualified experts.

I'm actually personally interested in the topic because, as another topic reminds us, this pandemic affects us all. I'm frustrated, as are many others, that because people continue to downplay the seriousness of the pandemic, continue to flaunt common sense and minimally disruptive precautions, the pandemic in the USA has lasted months and months longer than in most developed countries, preventing safe reopening. I have cancelled three trips to the USA -- and I needed to make at least one. So when I hear people saying "it's not a big deal" despite a death toll of 181,000 and millions of infections, or posting things like a governor of state saying everything will be fine when common sense tells us that an event such as Sturgis will infect untold numbers of people and have a ripple effect, it's hard not to call BS.

Everybody wants this to end. But not everybody wants to do what it takes to make it end.

[RAFster122s]

Scott, you are fortunate to live in an area of AZ where the virus is not quite as widespread as in Phoenix, Yuma, or Tucson... That's a good thing in my book. There are a couple of strains of the virus out there and the earlier strain was not as infectious as the current most predominant strain. The current strain is about 10x as infectious as the earlier strain and it was the most common strain in NYC and NY State when their numbers were exploding. The same is true for AZ's huge growth in numbers...it was spawned by the same G strain, not the earlier D strain.
Fortunately the G strain is Not any more lethal than earlier strain was and the medical professionals have come up with better and more effective treatment regimen to help give people a better chance at surviving the virus. It is predominantly more lethal for those 65 and up but those 55-65 are also at increased risk. Everyone faces the long term risks they are finding of organ failure and heart issues as well as the pulmonary damages possible. This virus is a nasty bug and they don't fully understand it yet, much less know what they can expect it to do with everyone as it really throws a curve ball on some people in ways they cannot anticipate. Hopefully if you or I come down with the virus we will have excellent medical care with doctors who know what to test for and monitor to get ahead of the curve of some of those very negative outcomes start to develop.


We can all argue our views but at the end of the day people are getting sick who have gone to Sturgis and those that are living in the area are also getting sick.
Want to know a place to stay far away from .. Las Vegas and Nevada...they are having some super spreader events that isn't getting much press. What you get in Vegas is following you home...


Stay healthy everyone and be kind to others. Maybe if we are kind to each other we will enjoy life a little or a lot more.
David 

[grcamna2]

Thanks for that David 

[carnivorous chicken]

Face palm.

"South Dakota dismisses 'elite class of so-called experts,' carries on with state fair after Sturgis rally fueled COVID-19 surge"

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/09/03/south-dakota-covid-19-sturgis-rally-state-fair-kristi-noem/5709042002/

USA Today is trash, but I couldn't resist the headline. The battle against science continues!

"Well, we had an event that wound up spreading the virus locally and nationally, why not have another?"

It's also spreading at South Dakota's universities -- and at universities everywhere.

[BeSeeingYou]

One death in Minnesota a few days ago attributed to the rally.  It was the person in ICU from my previous post.

[Jerry Rxman Griffin aka MuthaF'er]

You reap what others sow.

WEAR YOUR DAMN MASKS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Or stay at home. Care about others.

Simple concept from another medical provider. Why is it such a big deal?!

[Alan F.]

+1

I'm tired of footing the bill for people who choose to be STUPID, it's not a dissease, it's a choice. STUPID kills.

[scottly]

I'm wondering how much the case numbers will increase in the next week or two after the Labor Day holiday? Most folks around here are wearing masks when indoors like shopping, and at the bank only three people can wait inside the lobby, and everyone else has to wait outside, which would have been OK if it hadn't been 100*, and some numb-nuts hadn't spent 10 minutes folding a check up inside a piece of paper, which he then inserted into an envelope, which he then addressed.
Oops, that last part should have been on the pissed off thread.
I was just summoned for jury duty, and they sent a questionnaire to help the attorneys select potential jurors prior to an in-person appearance. If called, masks would be required, and there would be a four (4) foot social distance requirement??? Excuse me, but everything I've heard is six (6) feet.    

[RAFster122s]

Reality Scott is 6 ft will not protect you if you are in close proximity for extended period of time. Longer times in proximity increase your exposure and mask protection is reduced over time. The very tiny particles are suspended in the air for hours...those are the same ones that can penetrate the mask over time.

[scottly]

Oh, I agree David, but the idea that they want to reduce the distance to four feet, in an enclosed area for extended periods of time doesn't sound like a good idea to me. I'm guessing they came up with four feet more due to the size of the jury box than anything? I mean, 12 jurors spaced no closer than six feet apart would take up a lot of floor space, and I suspect that even four feet would be hard to maintain in the last box I sat in??

[jlh3rd]

sorry to be the bearer of good news...yeah, the sky is not falling...
infection rate from sturgis is .065%. Thats lower than the 1.76% national rate, which is really low.  The one death reported is one in 400,000, and he had multiple health complications already.
     98% of the U.S. population has not been infected, and more than 90% of the deaths have been in association with related ,current medical conditions. That leaves ,what, around 18,000 deaths directly wuhan virus related with the vast majority being in nursing homes.
      NO ONE wants to keep tabs on regular, various cold, flu , etc, infections,  and associated deaths from those in relation to sturgis.....No way am I gonna believe that 400,000+ people came back from sturgis and they are all alive with no deaths from other infections, except for one person. ...yeah, right,...let's play fair.
IF YOU WANNA WEAR YOUR MASK WHILE RIDING A MOTORCYCLE AND NOT WEAR YOUR HELMET!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!YOUR CHOICE!...YOU WANNA WEAR ONE WHILE YOUR DRIVING?.....OUSIDE?...choice again. I won't come down on you, don't come down on me if I don't. DON'T YOU TELL ME TO WEAR MINE.
     If you're afraid to go out, don't go. If you can't understand microscopic particles and masks, I can't help you.
Medical professionals do NOT wear the same mask all day, they change frequently.....I'm sure all the adamant, arrogant mask wearers have hundreds of masks stuffed in their cars, and pockets....don't forget, taking that mask off and on contaminates your hands, other surfaces...gotta wear gloves, oops those are contaminated, ...grab the spray bottle...oops, you touched it, that's contaminated....now your car is........laughable....
       Honor establishments that ask you to. fair enough. Ignore the fact that accumulation of particles on the mask increases your chance of infection the longer you wear the mask, and if you can smell a fart, that virus is also getting through.
        Just got back from a concours car/bike show in Wv. Good time. Shook hands, great conversations, elbow touches with the judges, no problem. Wear the mask inside, sure, outside? ..your choice....If you are worried, then you just don't go.
         I enjoyed my flights to and from denver and a grandson's football game........
The virus is not going away, cases from exposure will always happen......get back to living....it's not an automatic death sentence...
       
       
       

[Jerry Rxman Griffin aka MuthaF'er]

No, you are wrong Jihad, that infection rate of 0.065% is not from 460,000 people tested. I wonder how many people that attended got tested upon leaving?! That is Chump rhetoric - ie less tests result in lower positive tests vs lower positive infections

[carnivorous chicken]

sorry to be the bearer of good news...yeah, the sky is not falling...
infection rate from sturgis is .065%. Thats lower than the 1.76% national rate, which is really low.  The one death reported is one in 400,000, and he had multiple health complications already.
     98% of the U.S. population has not been infected, and more than 90% of the deaths have been in association with related ,current medical conditions. That leaves ,what, around 18,000 deaths directly wuhan virus related with the vast majority being in nursing homes.
      NO ONE wants to keep tabs on regular, various cold, flu , etc, infections,  and associated deaths from those in relation to sturgis.....No way am I gonna believe that 400,000+ people came back from sturgis and they are all alive with no deaths from other infections, except for one person. ...yeah, right,...let's play fair.
IF YOU WANNA WEAR YOUR MASK WHILE RIDING A MOTORCYCLE AND NOT WEAR YOUR HELMET!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!YOUR CHOICE!...YOU WANNA WEAR ONE WHILE YOUR DRIVING?.....OUSIDE?...choice again. I won't come down on you, don't come down on me if I don't. DON'T YOU TELL ME TO WEAR MINE.
     If you're afraid to go out, don't go. If you can't understand microscopic particles and masks, I can't help you.
Medical professionals do NOT wear the same mask all day, they change frequently.....I'm sure all the adamant, arrogant mask wearers have hundreds of masks stuffed in their cars, and pockets....don't forget, taking that mask off and on contaminates your hands, other surfaces...gotta wear gloves, oops those are contaminated, ...grab the spray bottle...oops, you touched it, that's contaminated....now your car is........laughable....
       Honor establishments that ask you to. fair enough. Ignore the fact that accumulation of particles on the mask increases your chance of infection the longer you wear the mask, and if you can smell a fart, that virus is also getting through.
        Just got back from a concours car/bike show in Wv. Good time. Shook hands, great conversations, elbow touches with the judges, no problem. Wear the mask inside, sure, outside? ..your choice....If you are worried, then you just don't go.
         I enjoyed my flights to and from denver and a grandson's football game........
The virus is not going away, cases from exposure will always happen......get back to living....it's not an automatic death sentence...

While I admit I like canterousness as much as the next guy -- did you go to your grandson's football game and make a scene like you were considering? There a tons of hilarious videos of that ilk... -- right now one out of every 52 people in the USA has had the virus, and one out of every 1725 people in the USA have died from it.

Nobody knows the infection rate from Sturgis -- where did you get that data? The idea that people are dying from other causes and Covid is being blamed, thereby inflating numbers, is also incorrect. As I have said repeatedly, according to medial professionals and associations, Covid is underreported. The number of deaths in the United States is over 200,000 more than normal, as of about a month ago, leading medical professionals to conclude that they are almost certainly due to Covid.

The idea that 98% of the population has been unaffected is also misleading. Most sensible people have been taking precautions that have certainly affected their lives, and many people's livelihoods. It has affected families, so that loved one may have died or may experience permanent effects from the virus. Rather, it's people who refuse to take precautions that are responsible for spreading the virus (not entirely, of course), and for keeping businesses closed or enforcing strict measures.

Wearing a mask may protect the wearer, but it is more to stop the spread from the mask wearer, if he or she is infected without knowing. As such, it's a common courtesy. It's really not that difficult to do, but shows that you care about other people. Acting tough, as though nearly 200,000 (or maybe more) people dead and 6 million sick is no big deal, and that wearing a mask is a terrible burden or wome kind of violation of your rights, is just eye-roll inducing. As for people riding with masks on, which you've brought up a couple times, who cares? I don't ride with a mask on, but I put one on when I get off. I don't drive with my mask on, but I put one on before I get out of the car. It's simple courtesy.

Finally, something I have pointed out going back to March, the number of victims is dynamic, not static. It's increasing in the USA at disturbing rates -- in three weeks, there will be 200,000 dead, in three months, 250,000 dead if current rates hold. The United States is 4% of the world's population and 25% of the world's covid cases. This is a direct result of Americans refusing to take action to lessen the spread of this virus.

While for some people (I guess?) it's easy to shrug off all of this death, it should actually be disturbing. I don't get it.

[carnivorous chicken]

I should add: I hope you are OK. Attending an event without taking precautions means that if there were more than 50 people there, odds are someone is sick or has been sick. Symptoms sometimes show up weeks after infection. The media have been publishing stories of what can only be described as hubris-then-regret, people who denied that Covid existed, or that it was serious, or that it would get them, who then got sick and died.

You're a grandfather, and people who are older are more at risk for dying if they catch it. For your sake, for your grandkids' sake, for the sake of your loved ones, perhaps you would consider taking it more seriously and taking more precautions.

[maxheadflow]

[carnivorous chicken]

I think we are trying to keep overt politics out of this discussion, so it doesn't get shut down like all the other ones that discuss Covid when someone blows a gasket. Posting a video from a Republican senator's YouTube channel that downplays Covid probably doesn't pass the sniff test. Plus, the guy's not a medical professional, he's a politician -- perhaps not the best source for information. Too many people have been listening to politicans over health professionals, and that's part of the reason the US is in such bad shape.

[jlh3rd]

I should add: I hope you are OK. Attending an event without taking precautions means that if there were more than 50 people there, odds are someone is sick or has been sick. Symptoms sometimes show up weeks after infection. The media have been publishing stories of what can only be described as hubris-then-regret, people who denied that Covid existed, or that it was serious, or that it would get them, who then got sick and died.

You're a grandfather, and people who are older are more at risk for dying if they catch it. For your sake, for your grandkids' sake, for the sake of your loved ones, perhaps you would consider taking it more seriously and taking more precautions.

thanks for the concern, I am ok. I hope you are. Lots of people have isolated and wore masks religiously and still get infected. I do take it seriously, I would not want to get it, I don't want the flu, or pneumonia, or even a cold as these can lead to pulmonary complications. One is not worse than the other, that's were I sit.
For the record: I said I would not cause a scene, read the whole post.Why act like an idiot over a mask at the expense of an innocent kid. But it works the other way, don't put a gun to my head and say wear one.....Ive never said the virus doesn't exist....It's not  a conspiracy, but has been twisted into a political pretzel.....with conflicting sources, stories and numbers.....
Not acting tough....just getting on with life........no "caps" needed.

[carnivorous chicken]

But it works the other way, don't put a gun to my head and say wear one.....

Let's be honest though, has this actually happened to you? Or have people pulled out guns and shot other people for asking them to wear masks?

[jlh3rd]

c'mon now....figure of speech.....of course not....however, .there have been examples of both " worlds". Fights over refusal to wear or not wearing........"caps" screaming " wear them".
      And threatened mandates, even if walking a dog by yourself for example.......just words so far........
and murmurs of forced vaccination...

[carnivorous chicken]

c'mon now....figure of speech.....of course not....however, .there have been examples of both " worlds". Fights over refusal to wear or not wearing........"caps" screaming " wear them".
      And threatened mandates, even if walking a dog by yourself for example.......just words so far........
and murmurs of forced vaccination...

Words matter, however, and the choice of a violent metaphor when people are literally running around with guns demonstrating against masks  (among other things) and people literally are getting shot over it speaks volumes. Even if in reality you don't have a gun to your head, thinking that one has a gun to his head is a way to justify a violent response. Instead of thinking "I'm being persecuted for not wearing a mask while going to the store," why not think "The store is asking people to wear masks to protect all of their other customers"? It's not that difficult to do.



 

[maxheadflow]

I think we are trying to keep overt politics out of this discussion, so it doesn't get shut down like all the other ones that discuss Covid when someone blows a gasket. Posting a video from a Republican senator's YouTube channel that downplays Covid probably doesn't pass the sniff test. Plus, the guy's not a medical professional, he's a politician -- perhaps not the best source for information. Too many people have been listening to politicans over health professionals, and that's part of the reason the US is in such bad shape.

Ignoring the politics, it's what the guy behind Cruz says that's interesting.  He's not a medical professional but had done some research into how the testing is being done.  According to him, the sensitivity of the tester is turned up too high which was part of the initial process but as the testing continued it should have been turned down as it was generating false positives. There were experts in the medical / scientific field that were recommending as much.

[carnivorous chicken]

I think we are trying to keep overt politics out of this discussion, so it doesn't get shut down like all the other ones that discuss Covid when someone blows a gasket. Posting a video from a Republican senator's YouTube channel that downplays Covid probably doesn't pass the sniff test. Plus, the guy's not a medical professional, he's a politician -- perhaps not the best source for information. Too many people have been listening to politicans over health professionals, and that's part of the reason the US is in such bad shape.

Ignoring the politics, it's what the guy behind Cruz says that's interesting.  He's not a medical professional but had done some research into how the testing is being done.  According to him, the sensitivity of the tester is turned up too high which was part of the initial process but as the testing continued it should have been turned down as it was generating false positives. There were experts in the medical / scientific field that were recommending as much.

Admitting that I am not going to waste that much time to watch this, but that I did watch a little and skipped around some, what's the point? That there is an abundance of false positives? False negative tests are what are problematic, as they allow potentially infectious people to potentially infect other people. Here is an article from the New England Journal of Medicine, perhaps the most prestigious medical journal in the USA:

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2015897

It's a tough one to call. Listen to Steve Deace, a guy who was (is?) a birther conspiracy theorist with no medical training who is a conservative activist with a radio show? Or the peer-reviewed NEJM? In this day and age, it's not hard to find reputabale sources. One way is to stay away from politicians and hacks who have an interest in downplaying the seriousness of a pandemic that has killed at least 190,000 Americans.

[HondaMan]

 Is it time to go out for a ride, and get some fresh air?
 
The #1 cure for the Spanish Flu was: fresh air and sunshine. It worked better than any potions anyone else came up with: it made vitamin D and lowered oxides in the bodies of folks.

[carnivorous chicken]

Back to Sturgis -- a report by researchers at San Diego State University released Saturday estimates that 260,000 new cases of Covid can be directly linked to Sturgis, and estimate the public health cost at around $12.2 billion.

[BeSeeingYou]

     98% of the U.S. population has not been infected, and more than 90% of the deaths have been in association with related ,current medical conditions. That leaves ,what, around 18,000 deaths directly wuhan virus related with the vast majority being in nursing homes.
     
The virus is not going away, cases from exposure will always happen......get back to living....it's not an automatic death sentence...
       
       
     

You seem to be echoing the claim that came out of the Gateway Pundit and other wingnut media that says that the 6% is the true number of deaths due to COVID-19.  This is just a misrepresentation of the data. 
This claim stems from an Aug. 26 update the Centers for Disease Control posted on its website, which provides a detailed breakdown of the accompanying health conditions (known as comorbidities) and contributing causes of death reported in people who have died of COVID 19 in the United States. The CDC noted that "For 6% of the deaths, COVID 19 was the only cause mentioned."

In other words, 6% of people who died when they had COVID-19 didn't have underlying conditions, such as diabetes, asthma or heart disease, and didn't experience any medical complications, such as kidney failure or sepsis. The cause of death for the 6% who have died without comorbidities is actually a severe pneumonia, caused by the virus, which is then exacerbated by a person's own immune and inflammatory response.  But the other 94% of deaths were still caused by COVID-19.  If a person without comorbidities develops complications due to COVID-19 and dies these complications may also be listed as additional cause.  Many of the people who have died had nonfatal diseases and would not have perished but for contracting  COVID-19 as well. For instance, someone with diabetes or high-blood pressure might have lived decades longer if they had not contracted COVID-19.  A huge fraction of the U.S. population has conditions that increase COVID-19 severity, such as diabetes, high blood pressure, asthma and obesity.

It's important to keep in mind the other disabling and prolonged health problems COVID-19 causes for those who survive the disease.  Death is not the only outcome that matters.