Topic: Sturges & Covid..check this out..

[70CB750]

Back to Sturgis -- a report by researchers at San Diego State University released Saturday estimates that 260,000 new cases of Covid can be directly linked to Sturgis, and estimate the public health cost at around $12.2 billion.

And you are so very happy about it.

[jlh3rd]

sorry cc, that is a "study" full of probablies, maybes, ....and cell phone data assumptions. In the study, they only admit to 14-18 actual cases.
      Where do I get my info from? Once again, Brett Delone , chief medical officer of Geisinger Medical Center, Holy Spirit Hospital , Camp Hill, Pa.. Either he's lying to our local community (Harrisburg Pa.) as a head of a major hospital here, on national radio no less... or a group associated with San Diego, Ca., ...that's Ca....is.....
    Sorry, I'll stay with Dr. Delone.

[jlh3rd]

Is it time to go out for a ride, and get some fresh air?
 
The #1 cure for the Spanish Flu was: fresh air and sunshine. It worked better than any potions anyone else came up with: it made vitamin D and lowered oxides in the bodies of folks.

yes...like the show here

[jlh3rd]

cars and bikes....sorry about orientation...

[carnivorous chicken]

Back to Sturgis -- a report by researchers at San Diego State University released Saturday estimates that 260,000 new cases of Covid can be directly linked to Sturgis, and estimate the public health cost at around $12.2 billion.

And you are so very happy about it.

No, and that's actually a pretty rotten thing to say. I'm certainly frustrated because it was so easy to predict this would happen, and yet some people just had to show how hard they freedom.

If your comments are just going to be trolling, I'd suggest you don't post them.

[carnivorous chicken]

sorry cc, that is a "study" full of probablies, maybes, ....and cell phone data assumptions. In the study, they only admit to 14-18 actual cases.
      Where do I get my info from? Once again, Brett Delone , chief medical officer of Geisinger Medical Center, Holy Spirit Hospital , Camp Hill, Pa.. Either he's lying to our local community (Harrisburg Pa.) as a head of a major hospital here, on national radio no less... or a group associated with San Diego, Ca., ...that's Ca....is.....
    Sorry, I'll stay with Dr. Delone.

It's an estimate based on statistical probabilities that are based on sound methodology. It's actually a pretty neat study. I've also read the report. Nowhere in the report does it say the actual deaths linked to Sturgis are 14-18. Have you read it? I'd be interested for you to cite where your local doctor states that, or where he gets his info.

It's really not that difficult to imagine a gathering of 400,000 people, the vast majority of whom don't wear masks, some of whom think Covid is a hoax, gathering closely for a few days, and then returning to their home states and spreading it. Some 90% of attendees were from other states.

[ekpent]

 At this time it sounds like more fake news from a non peer reviewed study using "synthetic modeling" and cell phone data. Show me 266,000 people who actually have it. Actual cases being reported in SD is around 140 and 300 nationally.  https://reason.com/2020/09/09/no-the-sturgis-motorcycle-rally-didnt-spawn-250000-coronavirus-cases/

[carnivorous chicken]

At this time it sounds like more fake news from a non peer reviewed study using "synthetic modeling" and cell phone data. Show me 266,000 people who actually have it. Actual cases being reported in SD is around 140.

You should read the report to see how they calculate the figure. Like I said, it's a pretty neat study and its absolutely plausible.

Cases in South Dakota hit a huge spike, as predicted, after Sturgis, with 623 confirmed cases on August 27, and a total of 3,538 up to Sept 6.

[70CB750]

Back to Sturgis -- a report by researchers at San Diego State University released Saturday estimates that 260,000 new cases of Covid can be directly linked to Sturgis, and estimate the public health cost at around $12.2 billion.

And you are so very happy about it.

No, and that's actually a pretty rotten thing to say. I'm certainly frustrated because it was so easy to predict this would happen, and yet some people just had to show how hard they freedom.

If your comments are just going to be trolling, I'd suggest you don't post them.

To quote you:  Nobody is forcing you to read my comments.  And yes, you are pretty smug about the whole situation, your posts speak volumes about it.

[maxheadflow]

I think we are trying to keep overt politics out of this discussion, so it doesn't get shut down like all the other ones that discuss Covid when someone blows a gasket. Posting a video from a Republican senator's YouTube channel that downplays Covid probably doesn't pass the sniff test. Plus, the guy's not a medical professional, he's a politician -- perhaps not the best source for information. Too many people have been listening to politicans over health professionals, and that's part of the reason the US is in such bad shape.

Ignoring the politics, it's what the guy behind Cruz says that's interesting.  He's not a medical professional but had done some research into how the testing is being done.  According to him, the sensitivity of the tester is turned up too high which was part of the initial process but as the testing continued it should have been turned down as it was generating false positives. There were experts in the medical / scientific field that were recommending as much.

Admitting that I am not going to waste that much time to watch this, but that I did watch a little and skipped around some, what's the point? That there is an abundance of false positives? False negative tests are what are problematic, as they allow potentially infectious people to potentially infect other people. Here is an article from the New England Journal of Medicine, perhaps the most prestigious medical journal in the USA:

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2015897

It's a tough one to call. Listen to Steve Deace, a guy who was (is?) a birther conspiracy theorist with no medical training who is a conservative activist with a radio show? Or the peer-reviewed NEJM? In this day and age, it's not hard to find reputabale sources. One way is to stay away from politicians and hacks who have an interest in downplaying the seriousness of a pandemic that has killed at least 190,000 Americans.

First off, I worked in electronic test for about 18 years. Most of it was related to analog measurements of RF gear.  While it's not medical testing, it needed to focus on accuracy of the test equipment.

The article you posted is good, the only problem with it is that it uses some research from China. I would question how controlled the testing was done there and how valid the results are.  The paper does bring up valid points. The article I presented does also. 

There is definitely a need for increasing the accuracy.  An easy way to do they is to double the number of tests.  That requires doubling test capacity. Not an easy task.

Here is another article on Sturges infections.

https://www.kotatv.com/2020/09/08/gov-noem-says-sturgis-rally-report-is-fiction/

[754]

Is it just me , but I find it really silly to say South Dakota does not have many cases.
 Why do a few of you keep ignoring the fact that there were 400, 000 visitors that have now left the state.... the number of them that  got sick , largely traces back to them having been in Sturgis..

[carnivorous chicken]

First off, I worked in electronic test for about 18 years. Most of it was related to analog measurements of RF gear.  While it's not medical testing, it needed to focus on accuracy of the test equipment.

The article you posted is good, the only problem with it is that it uses some research from China. I would question how controlled the testing was done there and how valid the results are.  The paper does bring up valid points. The article I presented does also. 

There is definitely a need for increasing the accuracy.  An easy way to do they is to double the number of tests.  That requires doubling test capacity. Not an easy task.

Here is another article on Sturges infections.

https://www.kotatv.com/2020/09/08/gov-noem-says-sturgis-rally-report-is-fiction/

I completely agree that there needs to be more testing, and am surprised at people who oppose this or who think that less testing will mean there are fewer actual cases. That logic boggles the mind.

But regarding the article, again it's a politician with self-interest in downplaying Covid -- the governor of South Dakota who said it won't be a big spreading event before it started (which is how this thread started) -- versus scientists. Regarding the Chinese sources in the NEMJ I cited, both are published in western medical journals, one with links to Yale (although the article hasn't been peer reviewed) and the other is peer reviewed, published by the Infectious Diseases Society of America, and is considered a top journal in its field.

Again, politicians versus scientists. This shouldn't be a difficult choice.

[Jerry Rxman Griffin aka MuthaF'er]

Is it just me , but I find it really silly to say South Dakota does not have many cases.
 Why do a few of you keep ignoring the fact that there were 400, 000 visitors that have now left the state.... the number of them that  got sick , largely traces back to them having been in Sturgis..

Couple points Frank. SD does not have that many cases because 1) not much population relative to the other states and 2) snicker snicker.. the less testing you do the less cases you have (know about) snicker snicker

[754]

The crappy part ismany of the SD folks don't deserve this..
 If you chose to work the rally , or to mingle, then those have themselves to blame.
 So the Rally to extent,  resulted in a large number of  distributors, that have now gone forth andare spreading it around..
 That is how I personally see what happened there. .

[Ichiban 4]

__________________________________________________________________________
Hello Everyone..

Well as the originator of this thread..I want to 1.) Thank Max for posting that video..and 2.) Suggest that before we go on and on about how 'politicized' it is/was..actually take the time to listen to what those folks were saying.

I felt there were some very good/thought-provoking items (and statistics) put forth that can help to reduce the worry and hysteria around Covid 19. which is still my main intent here.

Not that everything said was spot-on or should be simply accepted w/o question..but as a former medical person myself..and with a fair amount of statistical experience..I suggest that what was said in the video can be helpful to all of us in developing a clearer understanding of what's happening with the Covid situation..if we allow it to..and are willing to look beyond our personal confirmation biases about the situation.

For those that didn't actually take time to see the video in its entirety..please do. I think all of us would then like to see what your impressions may be after that..okay?

Best wishes to all of you..

Al/Ichi

[jlh3rd]

My impression is, it fits the anecdotal evidence I know personally. The stated evidence of other professionals ( Said doctor I've mentioned) that do present their comments for all to listen to. And other professionals such as the S.D. governor who publicly stated there is no problem.
      The S.D. legislature is not up in arms nor are the constituents, so the governor isn't lying......fake news....the sky is not falling.
Your going to have cases. It's not a death sentence. If you hid for a year then opened up, someone,somewhere  would show positive and the cases would rise all over again.  If you have the morbidlty markers mentioned, then by all means, shut yourself off.
       We avoided the I.C.U. overflow, massive sickouts of medical workers, and the shortage of ventilators , all of which were the reason we "agreed" to shutdown.
      Now it's politicized, they keep moving the goalposts. A drug that has been used, safely, for decades is now all of a sudden considered poison? It's enough already.
       Wash your hands, wear your mask, 6 ft,. stay home, whatever,....but enough of the mandates.

[scottly]

According to the South Dakota site as of today, there have been 15,571 confirmed cases out of 157,889 people tested. Today there were 169 new cases, out of 1203 tests, so 14% positive, which is lower than the 7 day average of 19.3 % from 8-31 through 9-6. There are currently 76 people hospitalized. All percentage numbers are up from before the rally.

[carnivorous chicken]

My mind is blown that people think that Ted Cruz, Kristi Noem, and some guy who pushed a racist conspiracy about Obama are more trustworthy than medical experts, especially from people who I imagine are among the "don't trust the government" crowd.

[carnivorous chicken]

       Wash your hands, wear your mask, 6 ft,. stay home, whatever,....but enough of the mandates.

This is great, the problem is you have people who do this:

        Just got back from a concours car/bike show in Wv. Good time. Shook hands, great conversations, elbow touches with the judges, no problem. Wear the mask inside, sure, outside? ..your choice....If you are worried, then you just don't go.   

Without mandates, people simple won’t take precautions. With mandates, people ignore them, face no consequences, and show up with guns to scream that it violates their rights. It’s just being selfish.

[RAFster122s]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-sturgis-statistical-misfire-11599694411


Search for Sturgis Statistical Misfire and you can get to the article. The money hungry for content owners redirect to subscription page on the link is my guess. A web search gets you there without that redirect.

[ekpent]

 I read that Wall Street article when I was researching this a bit but you have a broken link to the one you posted. Sure somebody here will refute it anyways as more delusional "right wing" conspiracy propaganda while they are home obsessing about  Americans and our firearms 

[jlh3rd]

       Wash your hands, wear your mask, 6 ft,. stay home, whatever,....but enough of the mandates.

This is great, the problem is you have people who do this:

        Just got back from a concours car/bike show in Wv. Good time. Shook hands, great conversations, elbow touches with the judges, no problem. Wear the mask inside, sure, outside? ..your choice....If you are worried, then you just don't go.   

Without mandates, people simple won’t take precautions. With mandates, people ignore them, face no consequences, and show up with guns to scream that it violates their rights. It’s just being selfish.

The death rate of the virus, in and of itself, is not what the predictions stated. It is also not what my world of anecdotal evidence shows. It's not reflected in the experts I listen to.......
      I'm not being flippant when I say to anyone, if you're worried, do what you need to do.
Maybe my point isn't clear, staying shut down as we basically still are, is worse than the slim possibility of contracting and passing away from the wuhan virus. It is not going away.....how long would you keep us quarantined? ....really, how long. And my answer would be at the end of any period you pick, cases will rise again.
      Do you even want to listen to the millions of entrepreneurs who are suffering? .....struggling? What about their consequences. We can't go to a high school football game?......that's selfishly arrogant, and ignorant.
       I didn't see anyone screaming with a gun, I've seen a lot of screaming crowds associated with destroying property and threats to innocent people while running amuck, with no condemnation from the " no spectators allowed" or" no drinks served after 10pm" crowd........
        And since when is a constitutional right labeled a negative. Some people show their egos in other ways....not my style....so what.

best wishes for all of us.
     
     

       

[BeSeeingYou]

North Dakota and South Dakota lead the country in new cases per capita over the last two weeks, ranking first and second respectively, according to Johns Hopkins University researchers.

South Dakota has also posted some of the country’s highest positivity rates for COVID-19 tests in the last week — over 17 percent — an indication that there are more infections than tests are catching.

[carnivorous chicken]

A grim milestone -- the USA has hit 200,000 deaths. I keep hearing from more friends about people who've fallen ill. Stay safe out there.

The CDC chief is emphasizing that masks are the best protection, but he is being refuted from above.

Meanwhile in Indonesia, the Southeast Asian country that is the worst affected by C19, some cities are requiring anti-maskers to dig graves for those who have died from C19.

[simon#42]

here in the uk the infection rate is on the increase again and certain areas have been put back into quarantine , last week there were a further 76 deaths attributed to covid 19  . the definition  of a covid death is someone that dies within 30 days of a positive test . 76 deaths is sad and i would not want to be amongst them but the normal death rate in the uk is around 10,000 a week so the covid deaths make up 0.76% of deaths .no one is the least concerned about the other 99.24 % . on top of this normal medical care has been put on hold . cancer patients amongst others are unable to get the proper treatment due to covid and in 12 to 18 months we are predicting a large spike in deaths . covid did and will continue to kill but it has been mostly the old and infirm who have perished  . when we look back on this in ten years i hope we dont find that our hysterical reaction to covid actually killed more than the virus