Topic: Sturgis redux

[carnivorous chicken]

Yep. All the available evidence.

https://rationalground.com/the-human-studies-cited-by-the-cdcs-recent-scientific-brief-do-not-support-community-masking/

C'mon, GTFO with that. Where did you find this?

This is the part that is frustrating. Every single person on here has access to the same information that everyone else does, including information that reflects scientific consensus. And yet some people will either search for and find some random study by a fringe group that contradicts the scientific consensus, and, because it comports with their views it somehow carries as much weight as legitimate epidiological studies. This is what prompts -- and deserves -- joking and ridicule. Like saying, "See! Sweden didn't shut down so the US shouldn't" -- without acknowledging the completely different circumstances (or the failures of Sweden).

Why is the USA doing so poorly, comparatively speaking, than all of the other developed countries in the world? Isn't there a simple answer? Could it be that a significant number people refuse to wear masks and take precautions?

Seriously, c'mon you guys. Just a reminder -- quarter of a million dead.

[scottly]

Yep. All the available evidence.

https://rationalground.com/the-human-studies-cited-by-the-cdcs-recent-scientific-brief-do-not-support-community-masking/

Your "evidence" actually shows how effective social distancing and masks were here in AZ.

[goodtryer]

Read past the part you liked because you agree with it.

“ The study observed, “In Arizona, decreases in daily COVID-19 cases were observed after … mandated and enforced mask wearing,” among a host of other mitigation efforts. This statement was followed by, “the relationship between mitigation measures and changes in case counts are temporal correlations and should not be interpreted to infer causality.” Which makes one wonder: what’s the point of the study?”

“Anyhow, if the CDC is going to use such temporal evidence to support the idea of mask effectiveness, they have an ethical duty to also consider the opposite, where mask mandates do not have a temporal relationship to a decline in cases. Ian Miller has posted dozens of such charts at RationalGround.com here and here. Cherry-picking one study that happens to have mask-wearing coincide with a case decrease is disingenuous. Also, it is now clear the masks weren’t the driver in Arizona’s case reduction in July since they are still wearing masks and cases have begun to rise again.”

[goodtryer]

Are they wearing masks in New York?

[goodtryer]

Spain seems nice.

[scottly]

Nice try, but that is bull#$%*. The "restrictions" imposed by the governor on 3-31 meant restaurants could only serve food to go, bars, gyms, and movie theaters were closed. There was never a federal or state mandate to wear a mask, although the governor did eventually recommend them.
On 5-15 those restrictions were removed, and cases and deaths went up, from 1,047 deaths on 6-8 to 2,000 on 7-9. (The governor had ordered the bars, gyms etc to close again 6-29) The death toll was 4,137 by 8-8. Thanks to most people doing the right thing, the numbers were low enough to allow a return to in person school by early October, but now numbers are going up again, and large numbers of people aren't wearing masks, much more than two months ago.

[goodtryer]

Can we agree that nobody’s mind is going to be changed by anything said on this topic?

Maybe get back to motorcycles?

I’d like to get back to motorcycles.

[scottly]

I’d like to get back to motorcycles.

No problem, just stop posting semi factoids on a subject you don't fully understand. BTW, the state of Texas is now approaching the same level of Covid emergency as AZ was in last July.

[goodtryer]

I knew I could count on you.

I guess we'll keep going...

Looks like the masks are working great in Miami!

But maybe I don't understand charts.

[scottly]

None are so blind as those who will not see.

[goodtryer]

Help me see...

Are the masks working in Hawaii? They must be unless the chart is wrong.

[Don R]

 Statistics will say anything if you torture them long enough.  Or get your into from Breitbart.
 

[goodtryer]

Excellent explanation!

Let’s move on to the Philippines. They clearly don’t understand the mask science!

[carnivorous chicken]

I think I totally get it, goodtryer. Post hoc, ergo propter hoc -- amiright?

[goodtryer]

That seems to be the consensus on this thread...


"People outside not wearing masks (as well as people inside not wearing masks) spread Covid to the neighboring states and to an unknowable amount of people all across the country. A majority of the pople who live in Sturgis wanted to postpone the rally, but politicians caved to business interests and allowed the rally. As a result, there are infections and deaths that could have been preventable, but some people just had to go to Sturgis -- in the name of "freedom"?"

[carnivorous chicken]

That seems to be the consensus on this thread...


"People outside not wearing masks (as well as people inside not wearing masks) spread Covid to the neighboring states and to an unknowable amount of people all across the country. A majority of the pople who live in Sturgis wanted to postpone the rally, but politicians caved to business interests and allowed the rally. As a result, there are infections and deaths that could have been preventable, but some people just had to go to Sturgis -- in the name of "freedom"?"

For some people I guess it is difficult to understand the difference between scientifically trying to trace a superspreader event and acknowledging its toll and the posting of graphs completely devoid of context -- that, as Scottly has poitned out, contain information that is completely contrary to the point you're trying to make. Without context, things such as weather (cold weatehr drives people inside), school openings, fatigue, etc., are all contributing. I don't think mask mandates are driving up infection rates when scientific consensus tells us that wearing a mask is the great way to protect others. You're arguing a correlation without causation. Do you know much about the Philippines?

But hey, wearing a mask isn't in the Constitution, and that's good enough for some people. Hilarious for most others, but there you go.

A quarter of a million people dead in the USA and counting. Goodtryer, why do you think that is?

[goodtryer]

I do it, it's "post hoc..."

You do it, it's "because reasons..."

THAT difference is the thing that's difficult to understand.

The entire premise of your post is that X led to Y.

Doesn't have anything to do with the Philippines. But since you brought it up, I guess you're not going to explain why the graph doesn't agree with your logic.

[Don R]

 I just saw a nurse interviewed in S Dakota. People are dying (multiple instances) and still won't admit they have corona and all they want to do in their final moments is argue that it's not real. The Nurse said they could be calling family but spend their time angry and in denial. 

[carnivorous chicken]

I do it, it's "post hoc..."

You do it, it's "because reasons..."

THAT difference is the thing that's difficult to understand.

The entire premise of your post is that X led to Y.

Doesn't have anything to do with the Philippines. But since you brought it up, I guess you're not going to explain why the graph doesn't agree with your logic.

Do you understand the difference between correlation and causation? Let me help you here. In a chart that you posted, there is a line that says mask mandate, and then the rates of infection go up. So you're infering that one caused the other, or any number of other things -- it's competely unclear without context or any kind of statement about causation. You do realize that you posted a graph of the Philippines which is why I asked you about it?

When you ask me to explain why the graph doesn't "agree with (my) logic" -- do you say that after having read what I just posted (citing multiple causes for Covid spikes) or do you just ignore that part?

I invented the piano necktie.

[carnivorous chicken]

I just saw a nurse interviewed in S Dakota. People are dying (multiple instances) and still won't admit they have corona and all they want to do in their final moments is argue that it's not real. The Nurse said they could be calling family but spend their time angry and in denial.

Same thing has been happening here, along with conspiracies that hospitals cause Covid, or that there are "quotas" for how many people must die in hospitals. As a result, people aren't taking family to hospitals until they are on the verge of death, which means that the hospital can't save them, which means they die at the hospital, and it makes their conspiracy seem founded. It's madness.

[Don R]

 It would be cruel for me to say what I'm thinking so I'll bow out now.

[carnivorous chicken]

It would be cruel for me to say what I'm thinking so I'll bow out now.

Although I don't do as much work on conspiracies and rumors as I did before, I still follow the literature a little. There has been some neat work out of Europe in the past two years in the field of social psychology looking to explain why people believe conspiracies and also contradict scientific consensus despite having no sceintific expertise -- in the context of global warming, for example, but also currently with Covid that will likely get published in the next year or so. It boils down to a desire to feel "special" -- literally. It will motivate people to ignore facts and reality and seek out information that confirms the conspiracy. No amount of reason will change their minds.

[goodtryer]

Do you understand the difference between correlation and causation? Let me help you here. In a chart that you posted, there is a line that says mask mandate, and then the rates of infection go up. So you're infering that one caused the other, or any number of other things -- it's competely unclear without context or any kind of statement about causation. You do realize that you posted a graph of the Philippines which is why I asked you about it?

When you ask me to explain why the graph doesn't "agree with (my) logic" -- do you say that after having read what I just posted (citing multiple causes for Covid spikes) or do you just ignore that part?

I invented the piano necktie.

Yes, I was there when I posted the multiple graphs that contradict your X-leads-to-Y assertion. No, I was not there when you posted a logical response that explains why your assertion is correct.

[carnivorous chicken]

Although I don't do as much work on conspiracies and rumors as I did before, I still follow the literature a little. There has been some neat work out of Europe in the past two years in the field of social psychology looking to explain why people believe conspiracies and also contradict scientific consensus despite having no sceintific expertise -- in the context of global warming, for example, but also currently with Covid that will likely get published in the next year or so. It boils down to a desire to feel "special" -- literally. It will motivate people to ignore facts and reality and seek out information that confirms the conspiracy. No amount of reason will change their minds.

I sure hope they spell my fcuking name right this time...

Oh Cal, you lovable galoot! Turn that grumpy frownie emoji upside down! I forgot that just because -- wait, is it 97% or 98%? -- whatever, the vast majority of climatologists are in agreement doesn't mean we can't save a little space for the other guys.

Check this out, though. I think you'd dig it. It's what the kids call a "dank meme." It's a picture of a famous TV celebrity, and the text is something like "Imagine spending years thinking that scientists, mass media, teachers, etc., have been lying to you and along comes this guy..." For me, just the first part is funny.

[scottly]

As far as I'm concerned the refusal of many to don a mask when in close proximity to other people, especially when indoors, shows a total lack of respect for the safety and well being of their fellow man.

Wilbur, I think what some find ironic and hypocritical is this “mandate” to something new and hyped, yet I’ve never seen lockdown mania or mask paranoia over other airborne diseases, like TB. TB kills more than 1.5M people globally every year. And has killed tens of millions throughout time. Still no vaccine. So why not masks?

Cal, just what prompted you to inject TB into the discussion? I ask because 2-3 weeks ago someone told me the same BS, so I checked it out and found the same info as 'Chicken, that there were less than 600 deaths per year in the US. You both must be following the same twitter feeds, or whatever the on-line equivalent of the National Enquirer is. BTW, TB is a bacterial infection, not a virus, so a vaccine is not applicable.