There’s a direct correlation between refinery fires, shutdowns, and prices a year or more later.
This is correct except for the delay.
The price effect is immediate. The recent storms in the Gulf Coast are prime examples. As soon as the forecasts started predicting an impact, spot market prices went up, futures prices went up... Fires and electric supply problems on the West Coast are not uncommon causes of supply issues and price spikes. The correlation is easy to see.
Collectively, the refineries spend hundreds of millions (not exaggerating) each year on planned maintenance on units that must be shut down, cleaned, rebuilt, expanded, etc. These maintenance events can last up to 60 days for the largest complexes, less than a week for smaller ones. However, these events are planned and public knowledge; the market plans for them. The refiner will stock up products in advance and supply the market from storage. And other refineries, locally or via pipeline, will fill the market demand. The real problem occurs when you have one or two refineries down for planned maintenance and then a third or forth go down due to a storm or fire or power outage.
The market in California is complicated, to put it mildly, and adding uncertainty like the small engine thing is not going to help; refiners have no incentive to invest in additional capacity. Pile the shipping logjam or labor shortage on top and you have a perfect storm to cause higher prices in the short term also. All of this is without considering the effect of increasing taxes* or inflation from creating TRILLIONS of dollars out of thin air.
Arizona, New Mexico, and that area are victims of their location regarding petroleum products. Regional refining capacity is miniscule and adding pipeline capacity is high-risk, low-return. There is more demand and easier supply to the east and west so that's where the investment goes. Consequently, if there is any kind of disruption (in the supply to the refineries, in the pipelines from the refineries, or in the local market area [electrical, flooding, freeze, etc.]), like I said, the price effect is immediate.
*According to this article,
taxes and fees are as much as $1.21 PER GALLON. I'm old enough to remember when the entire cost for a gallon of gas was less than $.50. No doubt, many of you bought it for much less in your youth.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/news/how-much-do-californians-pay-in-taxes-and-fees-on-each-gallon-of-gas/ar-AAMd2EsCheers!
