Author Topic: Will value of classics drop with electrification  (Read 5428 times)

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Offline Golo

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Will value of classics drop with electrification
« on: September 07, 2022, 01:53:02 AM »
I have a 1969 Puch moped, a 1975 Honda CB400F and in the process of buying a 1979 Moto Guzzi Le Mans II that costs 5000 euro. But I'm concerned that my bikes will one day be worthless due to electrification of vehicles that I think will eventually lead to fewer petrol stations and possibly higher fuel prices. So I'm unsure if it is a good idea to buy the Moto Guzzi What are your thoughts? 

Offline Ichiban 4

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Re: Will value of classics drop with electrification
« Reply #1 on: September 07, 2022, 02:49:59 AM »
I have a 1969 Puch moped, a 1975 Honda CB400F and in the process of buying a 1979 Moto Guzzi Le Mans II that costs 5000 euro. But I'm concerned that my bikes will one day be worthless due to electrification of vehicles that I think will eventually lead to fewer petrol stations and possibly higher fuel prices. So I'm unsure if it is a good idea to buy the Moto Guzzi What are your thoughts?
____________________________________________________________________________________________________

In a few words here: The answer to that is an emphatic NO..  There will always be a dedicated group of older bike (as well as car) enthusiasts who will keep these things on the road..and in their garages. Even if gas prices go over $10.00 per gallon (have been over
$3.00 a gallon for decades in other countries BTW) @ least within the lifetimes of most of us now living..

Also suggest here that the current hype about a "possible eradication of gas powered vehicles..by electrics" is political BS..again for most of us reading this currently. Wait until after the next couple of election cycles..to see how the concerns and discussions change..I suggest.

Suggest that just like things like vintage/antique motorcycles..airplanes..cars..etc..there will be a dedicated group of us out here to keep things like SOHC4 stuff going..at least as a hobby/pass-time. But we haven't even gotten to that point practically speaking @ this point.

Don't worry my friend.  The Calvery is coming LOL

Ichi
Al Summers

Present: '77 550K
Past: '73 CB450(twin), '72 CB175, '68 CB350, '58 Ariel Square 4 (1000cc), '58 Matchless Typhoon (650cc single), Whizzer Motorbikes '48 -'55 (Pacemaker & Sportsman)..Vespa, Lambretta scooters..etc.

Offline simon#42

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Re: Will value of classics drop with electrification
« Reply #2 on: September 07, 2022, 03:35:35 AM »
I disagree I think it is now inevitable . It’s ok at 10 dollars a gallon as it already is here but how about a 100 or more . I don’t think there will ever be a ban on petrol but fuel taxes will rise and rise to encourage us to go electric. This won’t effect most people on this forum though we will all be gone by then !

Offline PeWe

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Re: Will value of classics drop with electrification
« Reply #3 on: September 07, 2022, 06:25:31 AM »
When the electrical power plants are down, electrical shortage, heavy solar flares, the old vehicles will continue to work, 100% electric not.
The really old stuff without computers and electronics will run, like our old stock Hondas.
I have some points to use when needed;)

I do not trust the infrastucture when ambulances, firebrigades vehicles runs electric.
I'm sure we will see more electrical shutdowns due to less nuclear power plants that produce independent of the weather.

Invest in a tank with lots of fuel. Like the Mad Max movies. ;D
We are soon there.

Hybride vehicles a better choice.
I start my CB750 on battery, after that fuel ;D
CB750 K6-76  970cc (Earlier 1005cc JMR Billet block on the shelf waiting for a comeback)
CB750 K2-75 Parts assembled to a stock K2

Updates of the CB750 K6 -1976
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http://forums.sohc4.net/index.php/topic,49438.msg1863571.html#msg1863571
CB750 K2 -1975  build thread
http://forums.sohc4.net/index.php/topic,168243.msg1948381.html#msg1948381
K2 engine build thread. For a complete CB750 -75
http://forums.sohc4.net/index.php/topic,180088.msg2088008.html#msg2088008
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Offline jlh3rd

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Re: Will value of classics drop with electrification
« Reply #4 on: September 07, 2022, 06:48:06 AM »
When the electrical power plants are down, electrical shortage, heavy solar flares, the old vehicles will continue to work, 100% electric not.
The really old stuff without computers and electronics will run, like our old stock Hondas.
I have some points to use when needed;)

I do not trust the infrastucture when ambulances, firebrigades vehicles runs electric.
I'm sure we will see more electrical shutdowns due to less nuclear power plants that produce independent of the weather.

Invest in a tank with lots of fuel. Like the Mad Max movies. ;D
We are soon there.

Hybride vehicles a better choice.
I start my CB750 on battery, after that fuel ;D

I have a 1969 Puch moped, a 1975 Honda CB400F and in the process of buying a 1979 Moto Guzzi Le Mans II that costs 5000 euro. But I'm concerned that my bikes will one day be worthless due to electrification of vehicles that I think will eventually lead to fewer petrol stations and possibly higher fuel prices. So I'm unsure if it is a good idea to buy the Moto Guzzi What are your thoughts?
____________________________________________________________________________________________________

In a few words here: The answer to that is an emphatic NO..  There will always be a dedicated group of older bike (as well as car) enthusiasts who will keep these things on the road..and in their garages. Even if gas prices go over $10.00 per gallon (have been over
$3.00 a gallon for decades in other countries BTW) @ least within the lifetimes of most of us now living..

Also suggest here that the current hype about a "possible eradication of gas powered vehicles..by electrics" is political BS..again for most of us reading this currently. Wait until after the next couple of election cycles..to see how the concerns and discussions change..I suggest.

Suggest that just like things like vintage/antique motorcycles..airplanes..cars..etc..there will be a dedicated group of us out here to keep things like SOHC4 stuff going..at least as a hobby/pass-time. But we haven't even gotten to that point practically speaking @ this point.

Don't worry my friend.  The Calvery is coming LOL

Ichi
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elections have consequences.....explain that to certain "friends" before November......

Offline Ichiban 4

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Re: Will value of classics drop with electrification
« Reply #5 on: September 07, 2022, 06:52:03 AM »
I disagree I think it is now inevitable . It’s ok at 10 dollars a gallon as it already is here but how about a 100 or more . I don’t think there will ever be a ban on petrol but fuel taxes will rise and rise to encourage us to go electric. This won’t effect most people on this forum though we will all be gone by then !
[/quote
___________________________________________________________________________________________

You're entitled to your opinions Simon. But suggest that you've bought into the current rhetoric and alarmism about
'global warming' and climate change. None of us old timers..those of us who have lived through the past 50+ years since SOHC4 bikes came on the scene..would buy-in to your pessimism and fatalism about the future of where we're possibly headed in terms where gas powered bikes and vehicles maybe headed in the foreseeable future [agree that electrics my well occupy a significant share of what many folks use as daily transportation].

As I suggested in my previous post on this topic: don't buy into the current political rhetoric about 'how bad' or how imminent the current situation is regarding 'climate change' and need to convert to electric vehicles.  It merits our collective attention and concern..I suggest..but certainly not  @ the level of alarmism that the current political cabal in DC seems to want to talk about.  Here's a link to what I'm talking about here:  https://video.foxnews.com/v/6311888267112

Don't want to argue about this with you Simon..but felt that I needed to clarify my perspectives this topic..

Things will okay in the future if/when we don't freak-out about it..

Take care my friend..

Al/Ichi

« Last Edit: September 07, 2022, 07:00:32 AM by Ichiban 4 »
Al Summers

Present: '77 550K
Past: '73 CB450(twin), '72 CB175, '68 CB350, '58 Ariel Square 4 (1000cc), '58 Matchless Typhoon (650cc single), Whizzer Motorbikes '48 -'55 (Pacemaker & Sportsman)..Vespa, Lambretta scooters..etc.

Offline simon#42

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Re: Will value of classics drop with electrification
« Reply #6 on: September 07, 2022, 08:36:00 AM »
I have a bucket of sand in the garage , you are welcome to come and stick your head in it .

Offline jgger

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Re: Will value of classics drop with electrification
« Reply #7 on: September 07, 2022, 09:42:50 AM »
I think that when all the dust settlrs electric vehicles will have much smaller batteries with an internal combustion engine to generate the electricity. This is old technology that is used in locomotives for years. That's if the governments don't start subsidizing charging stations.
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Offline rocket johnny

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Re: Will value of classics drop with electrification
« Reply #8 on: September 07, 2022, 12:06:53 PM »
go to CA. and plug in your tesla .    start the brown out rolling

Offline calj737

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Re: Will value of classics drop with electrification
« Reply #9 on: September 07, 2022, 01:19:35 PM »
I have a bucket of sand in the garage , you are welcome to come and stick your head in it .
Perhaps it is you who should extract his and become more fully informed about the intricacies of a proposed e-vehicle only world.

It takes 50 tons of ore to manufacturer a single EV battery. 50 tons. You think the carbon footprint of that multiplied across a global consumer base is somehow more palatable ecologically? You should begin your method one treatments post haste.

No country in the world can sustain the draw on their grid for EVs as it takes approximately 12x the electricity to charge an EV per household as HVAC consumes currently. 12x. Cradle to grave, EVs are an environmental disaster. The lithium and cobalt required to manufacture EV batteries is mined in guess where, China. You think handing over the sovereign economy and national security to China is a good idea for the UK? Fcuks sake, you couldn’t even get along with Scotland. Try China on for size as a bedmate.

Certainly any country’s government can drive fossil fueled vehicles out of use by fuel tax, property tax, emissions tax, whatever. But what is their plan for the 10s of billions of desolate vehicles? Abandon them roadside? Collect them and pile them up in heaps in the countryside? Another ecological disaster.

No single scientific report written by a serious scientist comes to the conclusion that EVs are anything other than a red herring. Their argument of “zero emissions” is a lark. Sure, an EV doesn’t emit while operating but it sure causes a catastrophe during creation. Even a horse generates carbon dioxide while walking as does every human. So what logical diversion is there to those emissions?

It’s all horse crap. Adults will one day resume control and find an approach that creates an opportunity for all types of vehicles, all types of power without depriving people of their autonomy or freedoms.

Meanwhile, I’m a huge fan on EVs from a fun factor. They’re an absolute blast to drive but don’t have anywhere near the range or recharge times (or network) to be a serious road car for many that drive 10s of thousands of miles annually. Even the road tax derived from gasoline in the US is now at an all time low because of this surge. Guess what? Yep, another unintended consequence of stupidity and lack of full analysis.

The inmates are running the asylum. Globally.
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Offline BomberMann650

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Re: Will value of classics drop with electrification
« Reply #10 on: September 07, 2022, 02:15:05 PM »
Respectfully Cal, the manufacturing and charge capacity may be much less than you believe.

A home charger (the slowest 120v option) is 1600 watts.  The same as the shops space heater.
To wit, the tesla factory automations are powered by their own solar farm.

The high voltage station chargers just got an update that reduces charge time by 60% - i guess the electrical engineers and software peeps decided the batteries could handle it.  They were previously conservative with their definition of "rapid-charge".  As we knew overloading a lithium battery can end badly.
The common misnomer around charging is that its a 1:1 equation.  Ergo, a 45kw battery takes 45kw to recharge.  Which is simply not the case when dealing with electro-chemical processes between cathodes and anodes.  This process is plainly visible with capacitor charge:discharge rates

Jgger is right electric mobility is an old technology - Porsches earliest patents were electrified carriages.  And Jay Leno glossed over his garages restoration of an antique DETROIT electric sedan in a recent episode on youtube.
But since the electrical designers didn't have the political sway of some oil tycoons, a lot of auto tech was systematically suppressed over the past 100 years.

 

Offline Stev-o

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Re: Will value of classics drop with electrification
« Reply #11 on: September 07, 2022, 04:27:53 PM »
This is an interesting debate, but let's not let it get political.

Golo - buy that Moto Guzzi, it actually might appreciate over the next 5-10 years if bought right.

Our old bikes [and classic cars] will be around for our lifetime...

'74 "Big Bang" Honda 750K [836].....'76 Honda 550F.....K3 Park Racer!......and a Bomber!............plus plus plus.........

Offline jlh3rd

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Re: Will value of classics drop with electrification
« Reply #12 on: September 07, 2022, 05:06:31 PM »
But since the electrical designers didn't have the political sway of some oil tycoons, a lot of auto tech was systematically suppressed over the past 100 years.







I've heard this argument for years and I don't think it holds water.
Electric motors and patents began showing up mid 1800's...the first commercial oil well about the same time.
Both technologies had an equal chance in becoming the primary transportation energy source. Neither one, initially, had their tycoons. It was even footing.
The "Barons" of the later 1800's ...those railroad (steam), steel....rockefeller...saw oil as the bigger potential and sent their money there....for a reason....they weren't idiots.
It was free enterprise that chose petroleum over electricity in the transportation field. Not tycoons.
It became obvious to guys like the Davidsons, Hendee(indian) and others like them that electric power for their motorcycles, cars, airplanes (wright bros) was not going to work. It wasn't the electric motor, necessarily, that was the problem. It was the "gas tank" that was the problem...yeah, the battery.
.....still is today....
The Wright Bros. needed the lightest, power to weight, powerplant available. There were none to satisfy their requirements. And they were the type to exhaust all inquiries........so....they built their own gas engine....out of aluminum......another example.
even today...the cubic foot energy equivalent of gasoline far exceeds the energy capability of an equal amount of lithium ion, lead acid, etc....
    The battery had its own chances as in 1800, Volta made the first one. So it had a head start, well before any barons or tycoons.....
No one held electric power back, it has an inherent problem when it comes to mobility.
That's all.

Offline jlh3rd

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Re: Will value of classics drop with electrification
« Reply #13 on: September 07, 2022, 06:08:56 PM »
I have a 1969 Puch moped, a 1975 Honda CB400F and in the process of buying a 1979 Moto Guzzi Le Mans II that costs 5000 euro. But I'm concerned that my bikes will one day be worthless due to electrification of vehicles that I think will eventually lead to fewer petrol stations and possibly higher fuel prices. So I'm unsure if it is a good idea to buy the Moto Guzzi What are your thoughts?

I didn't buy my unrestored 550f ....or my '02 ,limited edition, camaro ( the last camaro...not) because of potential worth. or lack of..
I bought 'em because I wanted 'em.
Investing in cars and bikes?
It's just guesses and opinions as to the future. Luckily, that's not the factor for me.

Offline jlh3rd

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Re: Will value of classics drop with electrification
« Reply #14 on: September 07, 2022, 06:21:31 PM »
1 cubic foot of gasoline holds 7.4 gallons of gas and weighs about 44lbs.
My 6000 lb chevy truck averages 19 mpg. that's 140.5 miles. ...and with a 34 gallon tank thats a 646 mile range.
Extended cab, 8' bed....carrying a bike..
My camry hybrid, 40 mpg...so on a cubic foot of gas and 44lbs weight, I can go 296 miles..
....and 5 , 6 minutes to gas 'em up...
 
whats an ev's equivalent.?
« Last Edit: September 07, 2022, 06:25:41 PM by jlh3rd »

Offline Don R

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Re: Will value of classics drop with electrification
« Reply #15 on: September 07, 2022, 07:33:45 PM »
  My wife's 2013 Honda Accord gets 40 mpg, when I'm trying. Just like my 78 gl1000.
  Will people be allowed to travel long distances to sporting events? Racing will be an easy target, even though we can use renewable fuels, we still make CO2.
  Imagine what will happen to the value of my 567CI dragster, 28' trailer and 8.1-liter gas dually. Hydrogen fuel needs a major breakthrough.
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Offline PeWe

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Re: Will value of classics drop with electrification
« Reply #16 on: September 07, 2022, 08:50:45 PM »
This can be next forum thread.
-Wood gas conversion -
Find out how to make a smaller one.
https://makezine.com/article/science/energy/lost-knowledge-wood-gas-vehicles/

Finally worth the name rice burner !! ;D
CB750 K6-76  970cc (Earlier 1005cc JMR Billet block on the shelf waiting for a comeback)
CB750 K2-75 Parts assembled to a stock K2

Updates of the CB750 K6 -1976
http://forums.sohc4.net/index.php/topic,180468.msg2092136.html#msg2092136
The billet block build thread
http://forums.sohc4.net/index.php/topic,49438.msg1863571.html#msg1863571
CB750 K2 -1975  build thread
http://forums.sohc4.net/index.php/topic,168243.msg1948381.html#msg1948381
K2 engine build thread. For a complete CB750 -75
http://forums.sohc4.net/index.php/topic,180088.msg2088008.html#msg2088008
Carb jetting, a long story Mikuni TMR32
http://forums.sohc4.net/index.php/topic,179479.msg2104967.html#msg2104967

Offline scottly

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Re: Will value of classics drop with electrification
« Reply #17 on: September 07, 2022, 08:55:27 PM »
As the number of electric vehicles go up, the law of supply and demand says the price of gas will go down. ;) The recent increases in fuel cost were driven by the greed of the oil companies, rather than an actual supply problem here, just like the fuel "crisis" of the '70s that were driven by OPEC's greed.   
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Offline BomberMann650

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Re: Will value of classics drop with electrification
« Reply #18 on: September 07, 2022, 11:39:39 PM »
Scottly is right about this years fuel price gouging.
No doubt the embargo on the '+' members product from opec+ was a factor.
Even moreso, there are some rather damning interviews of domestic oil company mouthpieces stating
Quote
profits went up during covid after laying off many workers.  There is no plan to rehire those workers or reinvest the profits
So they're admittedly pocketing the cash and who knows when that will trickle-down into circulation

On the alternative fuels side of the discussion - we all know alcohol is technically a solution.  Albeit a challengeng one for the materials engineers to deal with. 
The same can be said for compressed hydrogen, as well as the uncompressed option.  Which even a freshmen chemistry student can complete as an experiment on their lawn mower.
Idealistically - hydrogen emissions are better.  Though its already been stated that production is a problem.  Getting the average person to think of it as something other than a burning dirigible or a crater in the new mexico desert is another obstacle.
Practically, i believe alcohol fuel is more viable.  More on that later.

The market for EVs and PEVs in the US a tough one.  The phrase "horsepower sells cars" is still relevant.  Americans have a vastly different relationship with the highway system than the overseas markets.  The relationship with motorcycles couldn't be more different between someone in Nepal and an American.
Another contrast are the speed limits.  As there are entire nations that literally can't drive 55 mph.  Or have passable roads for that matter.

It's often brought up that EV's won't road trip like a gas-mobile can.  Yet the market research shows that a majority of americans might only drive their car up to 2 miles on an errand run, and prefer to live within 20 miles of their workplace.  Other anecdotes suggest 92% of people never live somewhere beyond their hometown. 
Even though the real-world use case doesn't match the naysayer argument (majority which are ideological fallacies anyway)  Tesla still put out a car that can go spaceballs "plaid" speed and not have to pull over for the next 350 miles.  Why?  Because America.
Then some youtuber went out and did a 1000-mile run with his to prove a point.  He didn't hit the same same station twice.  Can't recall if he did a loop or if he had to drive the 1k back.

Building an electric semi truck wouldn't be as hard as people think either.  Building big strong stuff is comparatively easy - rather than trying to shoehorn massive powerbanks into a commuter car.  Aerodynamics also have a role to play in the effeciency of a hypothetical electric semi.  Every newton of energy not spent pushing through the wind makes a heavy load that much more manageable.  I'd be willing to bet the currently available technology and some of the manufacturing could produce a viable semi truck.  One that can complete a reguation driving shift by topping up on the mandatory breaks and fully recharge overnight - while also running the drivers climate control and fridgerator.
Obviously - truck stops would need a major overhaul.

So... Infastructure.  The thing that underdeveloped countries and rural/remote populations don't have immediate access to - is also a naysayers favorite bullet point.  When oddly enough refined petrolatum is another scarce resource for those living on that edge.  Motorcycle vloggers touring through remote villages in underserved countries have captured a stark reality of both gas and electric availability on a global stage.  The juxtaposed image of a decked out ktm pulling up to roadside hut/shack felt ironic.  The fuel there was sold in glass carboys and the price goes up the more you can see through the liquid.
Something else I gleaned from different episodes of video journalism - there are places in the world that don't have #$%* for power, water, internet, oil, gas - hell, even retail stores and supplies.  But you could bet your ass there's someone in that village that knows how to make some industrial grade alcohol.  The kind health organizatios deem not fit for human consumption, but its still the life of the party.

Which brings it all full circle.  The global import/export vehicle market in underserved countries relies on hand-me-downs barged over from their neighbors.  Unfortunately, the quality of vehicles varies from "junkyard scrap" to "it might pass inspection" - so as the years go on, if these countries don't manage to get a leg up on 400v electric stations (and teach mechanics not to kill themselves working around high voltage) - even the nicest electric car isn't going to help them one iota.

So maybe, just maybe, in a long-term big-picture sense - alcohol is the solution.

Offline dave500

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Re: Will value of classics drop with electrification
« Reply #19 on: September 08, 2022, 01:54:42 AM »
e cars as we know at this point are too big and heavy compared to what the future ones will be i think?they will be tiny boxes for one person only,imagine if over night all the gas cars were suddenly e cars as we know them now,wheres are the precious metals coming from and how is is extracted without diesel powered machines,and suddenly charging all those e cars?the grid cant handle a hot day with all the a/c running as it is,i think its all rainbows n unicorn #$%* this e car garbage,like what happens to the old spent batteries etc?

Offline krusty

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Re: Will value of classics drop with electrification
« Reply #20 on: September 08, 2022, 02:58:25 AM »
@calj
Your're a little off the mark re China and lithium.
Australia is the world's biggest exporter of lithium¹. In 2020, 46% of the world's lithium came from Australia and exports of lithium are expected to continue to increase, forecasted to contribute $9.4 billion in revenue to the Australian economy by 2023-24².
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1972 CB350F
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1962 C100 Cub
1959 C76
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1961 250TA Colleda x 2 primed ready for paint and assembly
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Offline krusty

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Re: Will value of classics drop with electrification
« Reply #21 on: September 08, 2022, 03:14:27 AM »
Lithium based batteries are only one method of power storage, there are other types being developed.
Example is Flow batteries which use cheap, abundant, recyclable materials.
Battery power, IMHO, is a possible stop gap technology pending future development of hydrogen cell technology.
https://cleantechnica.com/2021/11/18/the-crazy-dream-of-a-flow-battery-electric-vehicle-is-not-so-crazy-any-more/

Honda
1976 CB750F1
1978 CB750F2
1972 CB350F
1961 C100 Cub
1962 C100 Cub
1959 C76
1963 C92
1964 C95
Suzuki
1963 M15D 50cc
1961 250TA Colleda
1961 250TA Colleda x 2 primed ready for paint and assembly
Yamaha
1977 DT175E x 2
1978 DT125E
1979 DT125F
1976 DT250E
1978 DT250G
1984 FJ1100
1990 FJ1200

Offline Scott S

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Re: Will value of classics drop with electrification
« Reply #22 on: September 08, 2022, 03:20:10 AM »
 Let's keep this civil and as free of politics as possible, please.
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Offline jgger

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Re: Will value of classics drop with electrification
« Reply #23 on: September 08, 2022, 10:55:07 AM »
To the OP's original question, If you are buying it as an investment that is always a crdoesn't, as with any investment. If it is for enjoyment and you can afford it, go for it........the smiles it will bring are priceless.

As for the direction that this thread has morphed, we seem to be talking in two different directions. On the one hand alcohol or hydrogen both need to be burned to produce the power, weather it is by internal combustion connected to a generator or directly to the wheels. On the other hand true electric vehicles need a source of power, either a battery or a generator. The batteries and charging grid are not up to the task in most countries today. Like the ugly stepsister trying to fit into Cinderella's shoe, it just doesn't work. But a small generator powered by ( choose your favorite fuel to burn) and a small battery to handle demand loads and it's winner winner chicken dinner., i believe full on battery electric is many years away unless it is mandated, the perfect example is California's " high speed rail". The electric vehicle dream could easily fall prey to that same virus,  I hope it doesn't..
"The SOHC4 uses a computer located about 2-3 ft above the seat.  Those sometimes need additional programming." -stolen from  Two Tired

The difference between an ass kisser and brown noser is merely depth perception.  Stolen from RAFster122s

Offline dave500

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Re: Will value of classics drop with electrification
« Reply #24 on: September 09, 2022, 02:04:19 AM »
how many cordless tools have been junked because the batteries have carked it?maybe no longer available?so a new tool is bought yet again,how annoying is a phone that wont hold charge but the battery is locked inside so get a new phone