So I think maybe I've started going down too many paths.
I tested voltage on the black/white wire going to the coils and it was only 10.45 V. I hooked up to the tender and I'm charging the battery. I've been doing a lot of testing and idling, so the battery may need a charge.
I also unplugged the transistorized ignition system and plugged the points back into the coils directly. I'm getting spark at #4 now (but I didn't retest after charging the battery back up before taking off the transistorized ignition!) THEN, I ran the carbs dry (did not hook up a fuel source), so inconclusive test.
So, I'm going to take a lunch break, let the battery charge, hook up my aux fuel tank, and then test #4 for spark, and then try to get it idling properly, then try to set timing off the points, then plug the transistorized ignition back in and see if it is still all working.
I went through every connector on this bike and cleaned/lubed them up two years ago, though I think I've always been dealing with resistance through the old harness. If none of this gets it running just right, is my next step a new harness?