Author Topic: gas prices vs. oil prices  (Read 1623 times)

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Offline 1timduke

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gas prices vs. oil prices
« on: June 21, 2009, 05:18:23 PM »
Okay, so prices on gas are almost as high as they were last summer (post recession nose dive) around $3 a gallon with light sweet crude going for over $140 a barrel if I remember correctly.   So now, we have again $3 a gallon gas, but crude is only half the price, at about $70 a barrel.   What gives?   I was going to hear an explanation on NPR but I had to go to work before I was able to listen to it.   Anybody got a clue?   I know oil and gas prices are wrapped up in tons of speculator/investor/demand/supply/skull and crossbones society variables, but could someone please sort it out in layman's terms??

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Offline Retro Rocket

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Re: gas prices vs. oil prices
« Reply #1 on: June 21, 2009, 05:31:26 PM »
We are being ripped off......you did say "laymans terms"... ???

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Offline DRam

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Re: gas prices vs. oil prices
« Reply #2 on: June 21, 2009, 05:37:24 PM »
NPR:  said refiners have either slowed down or stopped production because there is an over supply of gas, which drives the price down.

In layman's terms:  yup, we're being screwed.

Offline 74cb750

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Re: gas prices vs. oil prices
« Reply #3 on: June 21, 2009, 05:54:06 PM »
Get outta here! I can't believe the oil companies would try to bite the hand
that pays them.  ???
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Re: gas prices vs. oil prices
« Reply #4 on: June 21, 2009, 06:06:27 PM »
Like any good dope dealer you deliver at the maximum price your addict can pay and still sustain his life.




Offline MCRider

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Re: gas prices vs. oil prices
« Reply #5 on: June 21, 2009, 06:08:34 PM »
The correlation or lack of, between the POO (Price of oil per barrel) and a gallon of gasoline has many parts. First didn't POG (price of Gas) peak closer to $4 gal? I can't remember for sure but i think so and that would put the relationship closer than you claim. That is, POG and POO have both advanced about 60% from their most recent lows. There are many yardsticks to use here so I'm speaking in sweeping generalities. Gotta give me 15%+/-.

The POG is highly reflective of the antic of refiners regardless of POO. For summertime, they often shut down for "maintenance". They also legitimately have to deal with reformulating gasoline to summertime EPA standards and that reduces or messes with inventory levels regionally even when raw oil may be plentiful.

The speculating is mostly in the oil pits not the gasoline, though that happens also. So price swings in POO will top higher and lower than gasoline, with gasoline trending sympathetically in between but with less volatility.

There are many geopolitical (and domestic political) issues and infrastructure issues (tankers vs pipelines) etc.

Not making any excuses for anyone, all the big boys have their fingers in the pie, for sure. But there is no reason to expect POO and POG to be any more than sympathetically correlated.

PS: confirmed US regular gasoline averaged $4 gal in June 08, not $3, when crude was $140+/-.

« Last Edit: June 21, 2009, 06:20:59 PM by MCRider »
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Offline Bob Wessner

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Re: gas prices vs. oil prices
« Reply #6 on: June 21, 2009, 07:58:36 PM »
Ever notice how when oil spikes, gas goes up instantly (even the gas in the ground tanks of the stations), but when oil goes down, it takes weeks for the decrease to be reflected in gas?  >:(
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Offline tramp

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Re: gas prices vs. oil prices
« Reply #7 on: June 22, 2009, 04:04:41 AM »
Ever notice how when oil spikes, gas goes up instantly (even the gas in the ground tanks of the stations), but when oil goes down, it takes weeks for the decrease to be reflected in gas?  >:(

i can't believe that you would think there is a problem with that
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Offline Buber

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Re: gas prices vs. oil prices
« Reply #8 on: June 22, 2009, 05:33:01 AM »
I'm afraid that if you are looking for cheap gasoline you need to live in:
1. USA - very cheap gas
2. Venezuela - dead cheap gas
3. Iran - here it's nearly for free, but let's say that social climate is not for everybody.

Otherwise you pay normal, that is, high price for petrol...  ;D

And correlation POO/POG is international, so that simply means regardless of your home, we are all being ripped off  :D
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Offline lynchj

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Re: gas prices vs. oil prices
« Reply #9 on: June 22, 2009, 09:47:49 AM »
Based on this link, we in the US of A, are paying about 1/2 the price per gallon than Germany, Netherlands, Italy ......  I know it's a hard thing to admit but if we were paying similar prices as our brothers in Europe we probably would be better off in the long run. We wouldn't be wasting fuel like crazy, we probably would have better public transportation and smaller more economical cars too and there would be more motorcyles (yaaaaa!!!!) on the road. 
 For some reason it's seen as an Americans right to drive monster sized vehicles that get 10 mpg and we don't want to pay much for it either.

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/gas1.html

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Offline TwoTired

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Re: gas prices vs. oil prices
« Reply #10 on: June 22, 2009, 10:53:52 AM »
According to Wiki, The US has about 240 million of the world's 600 million cars.

That makes the US the largest consumer, and there are price advantages of buying bulk.  There is also the greatest opportunity for speculator profit.
As for US cars getting 10MPG.  Last year's price hike, changed car buying habits, which is why the car industry and the economy tanked so badly.  Low gas mileage cars went out of favor, which is where the highest profit margins were in the new car sales.  You think the speculators didn't notice?  You think some of them didn't make a fortune on oil speculation?  You think there is any incentive to try and manipulate the market for repeating that scenario of making a large profit?  Do you think the the oil companies mind their product being the focus of a money making scheme?

The world population of cars is changing, though.

http://www.rqriley.com/images-spech/slide-2.jpg


As foreign car ownership per capita increases, the US buying power advantage will diminish, and the gas prices to run those autos will increase as it becomes less attractive for commodity speculators.
In the mean time, North Americans are driving again and using more gas.  You can expect the price to again rise to record levels until the market finds the same pain threshold that was hit last year.  Once again, Americans will either stop buying gas, or because they need gas to earn an income, stop buying other things so they can pay for gas.  The economy will again tank or at least soften, and the price of gas will drop, as speculators sponge out the money from the economy (no worries, the government will just let banks print more money).  Afterwards the people will acclimate to the price change and repeat the economic cycle, returning to higher gas usage, which the speculators will capitalize upon.

What is your personal gas price pain threshold?  At what price do you stop buying gas?  I'll bet it is higher than you think.  And, the speculators are betting on that, too.
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Offline Duke McDukiedook

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Re: gas prices vs. oil prices
« Reply #11 on: June 22, 2009, 11:49:55 AM »
Gas goes above $5 a gallon and I'm riding the bike a whole lot more abd the del sol will get a lot of batteries. And I'm riding my bicycle a whole lot more.

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Offline 1timduke

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Re: gas prices vs. oil prices
« Reply #12 on: June 22, 2009, 04:34:40 PM »


PS: confirmed US regular gasoline averaged $4 gal in June 08, not $3, when crude was $140+/-.



+1 MCRider, my memory is a little shot, what with all the gas I was mouth siphoning out of my neighbors minivan.

Okay, so, what mileage should I expect when I add a sidecar to carry the groceries and miscellaneous furniture found on the side of the road while my wife rides on the back?   I'm currently getting about 45 mpg on my 550. 

I'm also thinking of leaving a can of sterno under the bike at night so in the morning it's warmer and I can take the choke off sooner.

Just trying to think creatively ;D

-Tim

Or, maybe just towing one of those little shopping carts from the dollar tree...throw some red lights and a couple of blinkers and off I go!

The only thing I miss about the South is Waffle House!