(Sorry can't leave it alone, this is my last post on the subject.)
Tripps: Sorry you got stung, but it is a lesson learned and it will happen again. We've had 3 in our lifetimes. Japan as recounted by Bobby, and 21 years later they haven't recovered (1980s Japan was financially invincable, so was thought), Internet .coms and 11 years later asset prices haven't (and never will) recover what was lost, and our own housing bubble, 5 years later and the steady decline in prices is only 50% over IMO. You say "yet nobody seems to ever see them coming." (or better you repeated it) Keep your eyes open as you read and I think you will see. Its simple to tell. Graph an asset price back 30 years or so. When it begins to accelerate above a long term trend, we call that going parabolic. You want to see one, google "Australian housing prices" (or the pre-2000 price of intel stock) it will be obvious. When the parabolic price increase exceeds 200% we have a bubble. The only thing left to decide is do you want to play or not. The end game is certain. No bubble can be blown up forever. ALL bubbles are surrounded by reasons why they won't pop. That is just noise. All bubbles pop. As you'll see as you read that book. For centuries. Circumstances change, human behavior in the aggregate does not.
As to China, they have a bubble of their own to contend with. Their 2008 stimulus package was 10 times greater by percentage than that of the US. They have redefined "building a bridge to nowhere". Just google "China's ghost towns"
and ask yourself how much longer can they continue to buy materials to build ghost towns? Well its already gone on longer that i would have thought, but that's a characeristic of a bubble. It continues to grow while sucking in more and more...suckers, while enriching the purveyors, usually the banks and the governments.
As to the OP, all currencies will be in a death spiral before this is over. The appearance will be periods of rally, followed by resumption of the decline.
AS to price/debt bubbles: they all end the same way, price collapses to the start point of the parabola, debt is defaulted on and currencies are debased to pay whats not defaulted. Reset, start over.
Hey, maybe this time its different? I don't think so.
PS: Just saw Mick's post. Mick, I have to say you're entire post is so indicative of a bubble. (Same things were said about the Internet and US housing before they popped.) (esp Japan) It's hard to see when you're in it, you need some distance. All the government has done is "kick the can down the road" Your prices have gone parabolic, worse than the US, your debt levels are worse than the US were in 2005 (household debt to assets). If you're just an observer you'll be fine. If you're like Triipp and got skin in the game, you should research an exit strategy. IMO.
