Author Topic: Egypt, when will he go?  (Read 2658 times)

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Offline BeSeeingYou

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Egypt, when will he go?
« on: February 04, 2011, 09:51:41 AM »
Been playing close attention to the situation.  I know 2 people living in Cairo.  The best source for up to date accurate information I found is Al Jazeera. They often have a live feed from Tahrir Square.  Exciting times we live in.  I hope he packs his bags in the next week or so.

http://english.aljazeera.net/watch_now/
« Last Edit: February 04, 2011, 10:40:24 AM by srust58 »

Offline Roach

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Re: Egypt, when will he go?
« Reply #1 on: February 04, 2011, 09:57:03 AM »
he will be packing his bags by the end of the weekend i expect. the people of Egypt need him gone and if the U.S steps in he will be gone much faster. protestes cant go on much longer. the people have spoken now its up to the army to choose where it stands. the rest of the Arab nations are watching as well they are in the same boat in need of change. worlds watching...
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Offline flybox1

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Re: Egypt, when will he go?
« Reply #2 on: February 04, 2011, 10:04:27 AM »
back-door military deals need to be happening with the leaders of the army. they are the only ones who could gain control. it needs to happen soon.
unfortunately, i do not think the US has the balls to do that right now.
the chaos will continue, and soon that whole region be a sht sandwich bigger than anyone can handle.....
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Offline TwoTired

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Re: Egypt, when will he go?
« Reply #3 on: February 04, 2011, 10:06:03 AM »
protestes cant go on much longer.

You mean, a male dominated society?



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« Last Edit: February 04, 2011, 10:52:55 AM by TwoTired »
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Offline Roach

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Re: Egypt, when will he go?
« Reply #4 on: February 04, 2011, 10:08:19 AM »
yes twotired thats what i mean ;D
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Offline BeSeeingYou

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Re: Egypt, when will he go?
« Reply #5 on: February 04, 2011, 10:14:57 AM »
1/3 of Egypt's military budget comes from U.S. aid so they have the leverage.  Whether the U.S. will play that card we will see but the military may have to chose between Mubarak and the threat of a potential cut off or reduction in aid.

Offline flybox1

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Re: Egypt, when will he go?
« Reply #6 on: February 04, 2011, 10:25:40 AM »
we've got some good father-son-rock-throwing-bonding goin' on over there.... :D

pitching and QB scouts pay attention!!!
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Offline BeSeeingYou

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Re: Egypt, when will he go?
« Reply #7 on: February 04, 2011, 10:43:06 AM »
we've got some good father-son-rock-throwing-bonding goin' on over there.... :D

pitching and QB scouts pay attention!!!

Saw a guy with a large soup pot over his head.  Whatever works. :D

Offline Duke McDukiedook

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Re: Egypt, when will he go?
« Reply #8 on: February 04, 2011, 10:45:36 AM »
we've got some good father-son-rock-throwing-bonding goin' on over there.... :D

pitching and QB scouts pay attention!!!

Yes, with only two weeks until pitchers and catchers report to spring training they don't have a whole lotta time to pick up another potential prospect.
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Offline Kong

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Re: Egypt, when will he go?
« Reply #9 on: February 04, 2011, 01:33:41 PM »
The first thing that I have to say is that the Egyptian Army is to be commended - their actions throughout this ordeal have been the saving grace for that nation.  There is a lot to be said about that too - and I intend to here in just a moment, but first to set the stage.

Egypt receives about 25% of all of the foreign aid that this country puts out, it is the second largest recipient behind Israel (who gets about half of the entire foreign aid budget).  However foreign aid is not sent as pallet's full of cash, and many believe.  Nope, in almost every case (Israel being the lone exception) that is not how we do it.  What we do is give credit for the puchase of US goods and services, which of course are then paid for by taxpayers.  So to a very large extent our foreign aid is what keeps tens, and in fact hundreds of thousands of US workers in jobs - Canadians too by various trade mechninisms.  That is something that the politicians who sucker the crowds with calls for cuts in foreign aid are either too stupid to know or do know and don't tell anyone for reasons of their own.

Back to the subject ... The Army in this case has operated only to interrupt extremes of violence, not to take sides.  And when the current regime departs (along with the state controlled Police) it will fall to the Army to continue to maintain order - if not governance - during the interum awaiting a popular Government to form.  And one will form too, the crowds that form today will demand that tomorrow, and they have shown they will be appeased.

If the events in Egypt had played out in this country there would have been a slaughter in Washington this past week that would have made Gettysburg look like a church picnic - and that speaks to the insanity of this country as much as to the civility and sanity of the Egyptian people.  They are to be commended as much as their Army.  They haven't killed each other in droves, and any other place that is surely what would have happened by now - history shows is that much.

And now that matter of foreign aid and the Army.  Most of our aid to Egypt is military aid and a great deal of that comes in the form of training of their Officer Corps.  I'd be willing to bet that every senior Officer in the Egyptian Army has received substantial training in the US.  And what has come of that?  Well, they are maintaing order without taking over the country - and that in itself is a truly amazing thing.  And that is why in the beginning I said they were commendable - they certainly are that.

And now you know my opinion and a bit about what caused it to form, you may agree or disagree.
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Offline Duke McDukiedook

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Re: Egypt, when will he go?
« Reply #10 on: February 04, 2011, 02:07:55 PM »
Eh, I'll just sit back and see what puppet government gets put in it's place.  :P
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Offline BeSeeingYou

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Re: Egypt, when will he go?
« Reply #11 on: February 04, 2011, 02:15:07 PM »
I think you are very insightful on your post Kong and I would not disagree with what you have said.  The Egyptian military is highly respected and very professional.  They also control from 25-30% of the economy so they have a major stake in how this plays out.  They are the power broker behind the scenes and will be the ones to force Mubarak out.  This is also why any overheated rhetoric about a radical Muslim takeover is overblown.  The military would not allow it but a much more democratic Egypt is coming.

Offline Kong

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Re: Egypt, when will he go?
« Reply #12 on: February 04, 2011, 02:52:39 PM »
A question I would like to have answered is if Egypt has a Constitution that makes provision for the orderly instillation of a popular controlling body and if so can it be called into play quickly?   Something has to come next, what was will not be.
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Offline Spanner 1

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Re: Egypt, when will he go?
« Reply #13 on: February 04, 2011, 03:24:21 PM »
Has anyone noticed that unlike the U.S. no-one has guns..... imagine the carnage if everyone was armed like their American brothers....  :o
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Offline medic09

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Re: Egypt, when will he go?
« Reply #14 on: February 06, 2011, 04:54:59 PM »
The situation and events in Egypt are all too reminiscent of Iran in the 80s.  The Shah or Iran ran a brutal regime, yet there was a growing middle class and university graduates.  What has Iran got now?  An Islamist regime which is probably more brutal than anything the Shah ever did.  Egypt is worse off, since they have less of a middle class, fewer people with higher education, and already a record of suppressing religious minorities like the animists in the south and the Copts.  What do you think they'll get in exchange for Mubarak?  The Muslim Brotherhood is already agitating for a review of the constitution (read: doing away with the few civil rights), and canceling the peace treaty with Israel.

Michael J. Totten is going to be the journalist/commentater to read in the next days.

http://pajamasmedia.com/michaeltotten/
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Offline BobbyR

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Re: Egypt, when will he go?
« Reply #15 on: February 06, 2011, 06:28:27 PM »
The US is negotiating with the Army and the US and Egyptian military are tightly aligned. The Army overthrew the Monarchy so they have been a political player and always have been. They have kept Mubarack in power and now they seem to be waiting for their turn to act. They seem to have their own agenda as they lay back and wait for something

Egypt is the brain power of that area of the World. Their Universities turn out graduates that are given free tuition to go out and teach the rest of a Arab Countries. They have the the best educated and most modern citizens in the region. The problem is they don;t have jobs.

I am not sure that Egypt will go the way of Iran. There is no Religious leader in this movement, it looks like a secular movement, I am sure they will try to horn in somehow. Egyptians are more modern and doubt they will put up with Islamic law or lifestyle. Whatever government comes out of this, Military backing is a given.

Of course Israel is keeping a close eye on this situation as they should, Egypt and Israel have been doing fine for quite a stretch. I would not be surprised if there has been quiet cooperation between the two over the years. 
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Offline medic09

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Re: Egypt, when will he go?
« Reply #16 on: February 06, 2011, 09:34:28 PM »
Bobby, I hope you're right; but I (and some pretty astute analysts) think you and the American gov't are discounting the Muslim Brotherhood.
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Offline seaweb11

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Re: Egypt, when will he go?
« Reply #17 on: February 06, 2011, 09:54:54 PM »
........and Jordan will be next?

Offline medic09

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Re: Egypt, when will he go?
« Reply #18 on: February 06, 2011, 10:06:36 PM »
........and Jordan will be next?

It isn't unthinkable, though a tougher call.  Jordan is ruled by a nominal monarchy; though you notice that the king just five days ago dismissed his gov't.  He is trying to do a better job of reading the unfavorable winds, and to preempt the protesters - something Mubarak failed to do until basically too late.  I suspect that toppling a monarchy would take more than what is needed to depose a gov't in Egypt.

The Islamist unrest in the Arab world is quite strong right now.  Tunisia, Lebanon, Egypt, Jordan, the Palestinian Authority.  The regimes that looked favorably on working with the West to some extent, are all being deposed.  But what is being instituted in their places is not a democratic, liberal gov't.  Look at how the gov't in Iran controls its populace, or how Hamas does so in Gaza.

BTW, when democratic protesters were active not long ago in Iran, why didn't the West speak up in their favor then?  Of all the protests, they were likely the only ones actually agitating for a liberal democracy.
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Offline BeSeeingYou

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Re: Egypt, when will he go?
« Reply #19 on: February 06, 2011, 10:44:14 PM »
   I don't think the comparison with Iran is valid.  In Iran you had a strong anti-American component due to the fact that the U.S. was up to it's eyeballs in overthrowing a legitimate government, installing the Shah, openly supporting his repressive government, and along with the British virtually robbing the country of it's natural resources.  If the U.S. would have forcefully supported Mubarak and helped to keep him in power then I think it would radicalize the population and you would have an Iran situation a few years down the road.
   What you have is a country tired of 30 years of corruption and repression wanting the same rights and opportunities we in the West have.  How can you not support that?  Because it might be inconvenient for Israel or the U.S., well too bad.  They chose to make their bed with a dictator who they thought represented "stability" instead of supporting the democratic ideals they love to preach about so much.  It was Mubarak's 30 year rule that is the reason Egypt has little in the way of a middle class or lack of an educated population.
    The rewrite of a constitution that supported 30 years of emergency rule that allowed indefinite police detention and torture, took away the right of assembly, banned political parties, etc, I don't have any problem with that.  Anyone have a problem with that?  The Muslim Brotherhood is already moderating their stance on the peace treaty.  They have been part of the fabric of Egypt for 100 years so they will be a part on any new government(they hold 20% of the seats in the current Assembly).

I guess these two guys don't seem to be too alarmed judging by these recent quotes.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said last week that if democracy prevails in Egypt, he does not believe it will pose a threat to peace with Israel.

 Israeli Defence Minister Ehud Barak said Sunday that the turmoil in Egypt posed no immediate danger to the country, and he praised the Egyptian military for its stabilising role.  The online site ynet cited Barak as saying that Egypt 'remains an important neighbour, and peace with it is of high value.'  Barak added that he believed people in Egypt saw things similarly.
« Last Edit: February 06, 2011, 10:58:01 PM by srust58 »

Offline BeSeeingYou

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Re: Egypt, when will he go?
« Reply #20 on: February 06, 2011, 11:04:47 PM »
........and Jordan will be next?

Maybe not.  The King is popular in Jordan and the protests were not against him but against an ineffective government.  If the new government can improve the situation it may blow over.

Offline BeSeeingYou

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Re: Egypt, when will he go?
« Reply #21 on: February 06, 2011, 11:16:12 PM »
........and Jordan will be next?


BTW, when democratic protesters were active not long ago in Iran, why didn't the West speak up in their favor then?  Of all the protests, they were likely the only ones actually agitating for a liberal democracy.

The West did to a degree but the liberal opposition in Iran did not want or ask for overt support so they could not be branded as tools of the West, or the "Great Satan" to quote a phrase. ;D  Given the U.S. sordid history in Iran this is still a powerful weapon.  There was a conscious effort to keep it under the radar.
« Last Edit: February 06, 2011, 11:19:59 PM by srust58 »

Offline medic09

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Re: Egypt, when will he go?
« Reply #22 on: February 07, 2011, 06:49:12 PM »
« Last Edit: February 07, 2011, 08:20:44 PM by medic09 »
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Offline BeSeeingYou

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Re: Egypt, when will he go?
« Reply #23 on: February 09, 2011, 10:32:28 PM »

More from Wikileaks.

According to leaked diplomatic cables, the head of the Egyptian state security and investigative service (SSIS) thanked the US for “training opportunities” at the FBI academy in Quantico, Virginia. The SSIS has been repeatedly accused of using violence and brutality to help prop up the regime of President Hosni Mubarak. In April, 2009, the US ambassador in Cairo stated that “Egypt’s police and domestic security services continue to be dogged by persistent, credible allegations of abuse of detainees.

“The Interior Ministry uses SSIS to monitor and sometimes infiltrate the political opposition and civil society. SSIS suppresses political opposition through arrests, harassment and intimidation.”

Nice to know how some of our aid is being used. :P



Offline BeSeeingYou

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Re: Egypt, when will he go?
« Reply #24 on: February 10, 2011, 08:36:31 AM »
Breaking news from Al Jazeera that Mubarak will step down today.

Live feed from Tahrir Square
http://english.aljazeera.net/watch_now/

Edit:  Okay he hung on 24 hours longer than expected but now he's gone. :D
« Last Edit: February 11, 2011, 09:37:54 AM by srust58 »