Topic: Sturgis redux

[carnivorous chicken]

So the last thread on Sturgis turned into the predictable sh1tshow, but perhaps a final visit for an idea of what a superspreader event it was as the US continues to break records for daily infections (120,000 a day lately). From the NYT today.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/06/us/sturgis-coronavirus-cases.html?searchResultPosition=1

[jlh3rd]

Yet the death rate hasn’t increased....hospital rates and capacity is extremely low and lower than the percentage in the spring. Survival rates run around 99.9 % below age 60...give or take. Above age 70 , 99.5%...and that’s because of additional, age related secondary conditions.
     Only 6% of the total U.S. deaths are wuhan virus only, so that’s lower than the flu.
The flu can also leave you with permanent, lifelong complications.
There’s been reports of mutations, which is what viruses do. So these “vaccines “will not be vaccines. They’ll be like the flu shot every year, as time goes by.
   Just like the variants of the Spanish flu we see every year.

[jlh3rd]

That’s what happens when you come out of hiding and start living your life. Coupled with double plus testing, cases increase....

[Ichiban 4]

Yet the death rate hasn’t increased....hospital rates and capacity is extremely low and lower than the percentage in the spring. Survival rates run around 99.9 % below age 60...give or take. Above age 70 , 99.5%...and that’s because of additional, age related secondary conditions.
     Only 6% of the total U.S. deaths are wuhan virus only, so that’s lower than the flu.
The flu can also leave you with permanent, lifelong complications.
There’s been reports of mutations, which is what viruses do. So these “vaccines “will not be vaccines. They’ll be like the flu shot every year, as time goes by.
   Just like the variants of the Spanish flu we see every year.

____________________________________________________________________________________________________
Bump
Al

[scottly]

Yet the death rate hasn’t increased....hospital rates and capacity is extremely low

The infection rate in SD has been over 40% for over two weeks now, hospitalizations are up, and deaths are up. The number of tests has no bearing on the percentages..

[jlh3rd]

.01% death rate....That is the basic measure to go by.....unless we are to hunker down for every disease out there........or just for this one.....and if it is just for this one, why?

[scottly]

.01% death rate....That is the basic measure to go by.

.01% of what? The entire population of the world? The reported confirmed cases?
On 8-11, there were 50 new cases in SD, with 57 people hospitalized, and 146 deaths to date.
Today, there were 1095 new cases, 515 people hospitalized, and 523 deaths so far. Today's positivity rate was 43.85%. No one is saying to hunker down, just wear a #$%*ing mask.

[jgger]

I have been suspect of the numbers being thrown around from the begining. Scottly I am wondering about how they throw in percentages in the middle of hard numbers too. It does seem just a tad misleading.

As for what they call "new cases" has anyone seen a definition of what is considered "new"? Each person who contracts it is a new case, but when is that an old case? If you add today's new cases to yesterday's and the day before that, then pretty soon we are talking about alot of cases. The same with hospitalizedcases. Is it a running total or is it the actual number of people currently in the hospital?

Yes there is a virus but the numbers/stats have been questionable from the begining.

[simon#42]

I have been suspect of the numbers being thrown around from the begining. Scottly I am wondering about how they throw in percentages in the middle of hard numbers too. It does seem just a tad misleading.

As for what they call "new cases" has anyone seen a definition of what is considered "new"? Each person who contracts it is a new case, but when is that an old case? If you add today's new cases to yesterday's and the day before that, then pretty soon we are talking about alot of cases. The same with hospitalizedcases. Is it a running total or is it the actual number of people currently in the hospital?

Yes there is a virus but the numbers/stats have been questionable from the begining.

this is exactly what has puzzled me from the start .

[jlh3rd]

.01% death rate....That is the basic measure to go by.

.01% of what? The entire population of the world? The reported confirmed cases?
On 8-11, there were 50 new cases in SD, with 57 people hospitalized, and 146 deaths to date.
Today, there were 1095 new cases, 515 people hospitalized, and 523 deaths so far. Today's positivity rate was 43.85%. No one is saying to hunker down, just wear a #$%*ing mask.

40 is .01% of 4000...4000 new cases, 40 new deaths.....who says not to wear a f%#$*ng mask.
But Ill be danged if Ill wear one outside....

[jlh3rd]

I have been suspect of the numbers being thrown around from the begining. Scottly I am wondering about how they throw in percentages in the middle of hard numbers too. It does seem just a tad misleading.

As for what they call "new cases" has anyone seen a definition of what is considered "new"? Each person who contracts it is a new case, but when is that an old case? If you add today's new cases to yesterday's and the day before that, then pretty soon we are talking about alot of cases. The same with hospitalizedcases. Is it a running total or is it the actual number of people currently in the hospital?

Yes there is a virus but the numbers/stats have been questionable from the begining.

So true. I have said before, and of course it  causes arguments, how true and accurate are the sources being for the numbers?.....frustrating..

[jlh3rd]

I have been suspect of the numbers being thrown around from the begining. Scottly I am wondering about how they throw in percentages in the middle of hard numbers too. It does seem just a tad misleading.

As for what they call "new cases" has anyone seen a definition of what is considered "new"? Each person who contracts it is a new case, but when is that an old case? If you add today's new cases to yesterday's and the day before that, then pretty soon we are talking about alot of cases. The same with hospitalizedcases. Is it a running total or is it the actual number of people currently in the hospital?

Yes there is a virus but the numbers/stats have been questionable from the begining.

this is exactly what has puzzled me from the start .

yes....

[carnivorous chicken]

The comparisons to flu simply do not hold up, and never have. At the beginning people wrote off Covid because they said the flu killed more poeple per year -- ignoring the fact that it was just the start of the pandemic, the average number of flu deaths is static, and the number of Covid deaths was rising (I probably sound like a broken record here, but some people apparently don't get this). Then Covid quickly overtook the number of flu deaths, and it is now at 3 times the number of flu deaths and counting (after 9 months). For the record, the mortality rate for Covid is also higher than the flu, much higher. jlh3rd, I don't know where you get your numbers from but they're wrong. And the notion that only 6% of Covid deaths reported are only due to the virus is incorrect as well. Again, I'm not sure where you are getting this data.

And the idea that people should just "live their life?" I think that's the point -- but living your life right now means taking precautions so that you can live your life and not get infected and possibly die or infect others around you.

The point of the original post was to revisit the discussion about Sturgis. People outside not wearing masks (as well as people inside not wearing masks) spread Covid to the neighboring states and to an unknowable amount of people all across the country. A majority of the pople who live in Sturgis wanted to postpone the rally, but politicians caved to business interests and allowed the rally. As a result, there are infections and deaths that could have been preventable, but some people just had to go to Sturgis -- in the name of "freedom"?

If you are a family member of someone who died or who has faced or is facing complications from infections from someone at Sturgis who brought Covid home, I imagine you would have a different opinion about how serious this is.

[carnivorous chicken]

I should add, for anyone genuinely interested in finding out how deaths and case counts are calculated, WHO and the CDC, among others, have this information.

[ekpent]

 Jeesuz - not all this bull#$%*e again. Why don't you give each other your phone numbers and discuss it all in private.

[Don R]

 It's easy to avoid crowds and wear a mask in public. Just in case it may be serious for you or someone around you.
 You handle a weapon with care and follow common sense rules even if you believe it to be unloaded. Isn't this nearly the same?  Take care of yourselves and your loved ones my friends.

[754]

Maybe try this.. in the last 2 years, compare how many people you know that died of the flu , then how many from covid.
 This will vary widely among us.
 I don't know people in either group..
 But I have heard of a few people that knew  several in the  cogid group, and they were nit all over 65 years of age.

[Ichiban 4]

I don't want to add to the contention about the seriousness of Covid here..but simply wanted to say that it seems to me that the most important thing is to focus on not either getting sick (the term 'infected' seems quite broad and unspecific to me)..or unwittingly spreading it to others who may be vulnerable.

As I've posted about before..coming from over 50 years as a health professional..I've found that many infectious diseases can be effectively protected against using prudent hygienic and sanitary procedures (disinfectants..sterile procedures..attire and environments..et al.) When working in the health care field..these things become fairly routine. But I realize that for many average folks..that sort of awareness/thinking does not come automatically. So..education and periodic reminders are usually in order there.

I see no positive use in excessive worry..or arguing about how bad things are..or may be.  In fact that often just exacerbates the problems in dealing with the disease/situation..I suggest.  It is understandable that some may be worried and frightened about something like Covid 19..but effective measures can be applied to prevent further spread and morbidity's..as we are seeing..perhaps in small measure currently..but effective nonetheless.

So rather than arguing about "who's numbers are correct..and who's aren't" I'd like to suggest that the discussion could be about the things we can all be doing to protect ourselves and also mitigate the spread in the meantime. From a medical standpoint..help is on the way.

Best wishes..Ichi

[carnivorous chicken]

I don't want to add to the contention about the seriousness of Covid here..but simply wanted to say that it seems to me that the most important thing is to focus on not either getting sick (the term 'infected' seems quite broad and unspecific to me)..or unwittingly spreading it to others who may be vulnerable.

As I've posted about before..coming from over 50 years as a health professional..I've found that many infectious diseases can be effectively protected against using prudent hygienic and sanitary procedures (disinfectants..sterile procedures..attire and environments..et al.) When working in the health care field..these things become fairly routine. But I realize that for many average folks..that sort of awareness/thinking does not come automatically. So..education and periodic reminders are usually in order there.

I see no positive use in excessive worry..or arguing about how bad things are..or may be.  In fact that often just exacerbates the problems in dealing with the disease/situation..I suggest.  It is understandable that some may be worried and frightened about something like Covid 19..but effective measures can be applied to prevent further spread and morbidity's..as we are seeing..perhaps in small measure currently..but effective nonetheless.

So rather than arguing about "who's numbers are correct..and who's aren't" I'd like to suggest that the discussion could be about the things we can all be doing to protect ourselves and also mitigate the spread in the meantime. From a medical standpoint..help is on the way.

Best wishes..Ichi

That was actually the goal -- showing that events like Sturgis are a bad idea. There were a few people here who thought it was no big then.

But regarding numbers, you can't get people to take something seriously -- and do things like wear a mask and wash hands -- if you completely minimize it by pulling numbers and data out of your... hat, or wherever they came from.

[goodtryer]

https://slate.com/technology/2020/09/sturgis-rally-covid19-explosion-paper.html

[scottly]

.01% death rate....That is the basic measure to go by.

.01% of what? The entire population of the world? The reported confirmed cases?
On 8-11, there were 50 new cases in SD, with 57 people hospitalized, and 146 deaths to date.
Today, there were 1095 new cases, 515 people hospitalized, and 523 deaths so far. Today's positivity rate was 43.85%. No one is saying to hunker down, just wear a #$%*ing mask.

40 is .01% of 4000...4000 new cases, 40 new deaths.....who says not to wear a f%#$*ng mask.
But Ill be danged if Ill wear one outside....

Your math is wrong: .01 is 1%. Deaths happen days or weeks after a positive diagnosis. Today's data from the SD health department showed 1258 new positive tests out of 2352 new tests, which is 53.48%. The numbers are up everywhere, most likely due to complacency about precautions.
BTW, the death rate VS cases in Yavapai County, AZ is currently over 3%, and the positivity rate of tests are averaging 12.57% over the last 7 days. At the end of September, it was 4%...   

[Ichiban 4]

Hello Everyone..

Here's an interesting video about possible vaccine for Covid FYI

Also provides some good points about 'Mucosal Immunity'

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/ondemand/video/2050098/[/b]

Ichi

[carnivorous chicken]

Hello Everyone..

Here's an interesting video about possible vaccine for Covid FYI

Also provides some good points about 'Mucosal Immunity'

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/ondemand/video/2050098/[/b]

Ichi

This would be pretty fantastic. I think one thing everyone has in common about Covid is the desire to see it end quickly.

[jlh3rd]

.01% death rate....That is the basic measure to go by.

.01% of what? The entire population of the world? The reported confirmed cases?
On 8-11, there were 50 new cases in SD, with 57 people hospitalized, and 146 deaths to date.
Today, there were 1095 new cases, 515 people hospitalized, and 523 deaths so far. Today's positivity rate was 43.85%. No one is saying to hunker down, just wear a #$%*ing mask.

40 is .01% of 4000...4000 new cases, 40 new deaths.....who says not to wear a f%#$*ng mask.
But Ill be danged if Ill wear one outside....

Your math is wrong: .01 is 1%. Deaths happen days or weeks after a positive diagnosis. Today's data from the SD health department showed 1258 new positive tests out of 2352 new tests, which is 53.48%. The numbers are up everywhere, most likely due to complacency about precautions.
BTW, the death rate VS cases in Yavapai County, AZ is currently over 3%, and the positivity rate of tests are averaging 12.57% over the last 7 days. At the end of September, it was 4%...   

it is/was....typing too fast..

[Doobie]

Maybe try this.. in the last 2 years, compare how many people you know that died of the flu , then how many from covid.
 This will vary widely among us.
 I don't know people in either group..
 But I have heard of a few people that knew  several in the  cogid group, and they were nit all over 65 years of age.

I was thinking yesterday about one of my best friends from college who died from COVID-19 in March. It won't be long before everyone of us knows someone personally who has died.