I thought about it being a bent shaft but it only happens on 2-3.
If it was bent it would also do it on 1-4, no?
The strobe should be a placid smooth appearance. There is a component of magic to it, so don't dismiss anything. Logic says if it happens to 2-3 it should happen to 1-4, esp about the shaft and the advancer.
A saying I picked up recently (from Click and Clack the Tappet Brothers, I think) "reality often astonishes theory".
My experience has been that the jumping is caused by weak springs on the advancer weights. New advancers are unavailable (Unless David Silvers Spares has them, they seem to come up with odd out of production pieces). Look at the coils of the advancer springs. They should all be laying against each other tight, with no spaces.